From the wreckage of the Covid-19 crisis and the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global aircraft leasing sector has emerged into 2025 battered but bullish. The “Leasing Top 50 – 2025” report by Airfinance Global reveals a nuanced, data-rich picture of resilience, recalibration, and risk realignment in one of aviation’s most capital-intensive sectors.
Leasing companies today account for 50% of the global commercial fleet, managing over 14,000 aircraft worth $441 billion. This article decodes the financial signals, investor sentiment, and strategic manoeuvres defining today’s aircraft leasing landscape.
1. Returns vs. Risks: The Balancing Act
Adjusted Pre-Tax ROE (%): 2020–2024
| Lessor | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AerCap | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.2% |
| Avolon | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% |
| Air Lease | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% |
| BOC Aviation | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% |
| Aircastle | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
Insight: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, adjusted ROEs improved for top players like AerCap and BOC Aviation due to strategic aircraft sales and lease renewals at better terms.
2. Lease Yield vs. Debt Cost: The Net Spread Squeeze
Chart: Net Spread Compression (2020–2024)
- Lease Yield: Declined from 10.8% in 2020 to 10.8% in 2024.
- Average Debt Cost: Rose from 3.4% to 4.6%.
- Net Spread: Compressed from 7.4% to 6.2%.
The post-Covid recovery hasn’t fully translated into better spreads, as rising interest rates have offset yield gains, especially for lessors with legacy low-yield contracts.
3. Top Lessors by Fleet Value and Size
Table: Top 10 Lessors by Market Value (2024)
| Rank | Lessor | Fleet Value ($B) | Global Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AerCap | 54.3 | 12.3% |
| 2 | Air Lease Corp | 25.8 | 5.8% |
| 3 | Avolon | 21.7 | 4.9% |
| 4 | SMBC Aviation Cap | 20.0 | 4.5% |
| 5 | ICBC Leasing | 18.2 | 4.1% |
| 6 | BOC Aviation | 17.3 | 3.9% |
4. Surge in Aircraft Trading & M&A Activity
Graph: Asset Sales by Top Lessors (2020–2024)
- AerCap: Sold 389 aircraft in 2024 alone.
- Aircastle: Logged its best trading year since 2019.
- SMBC Aviation Capital: Offloaded 48 aircraft, a record.
This trading boom has allowed lessors to lock in capital gains and hedge against delayed OEM deliveries.
5. Aircraft Lease Composition: Shift Toward New-Gen Narrowbodies
Global Aircraft by Ownership Type (2024)
| Ownership Type | % of Fleet |
|---|---|
| Lessor-Owned | 50% |
| Airline-Owned | 50% |
More than 60% of lessor-owned backlogs are for the Airbus A321neo and Boeing 737 MAX families, affirming the shift toward fuel-efficient narrowbodies.
6. Financing Outlook: Debt, Liquidity & Stress Points
Forecast: Sources/Uses Ratio (2025–2027)
| Lessor | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AerCap | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| DAE | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| ACG | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| CALC | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Except CALC, most top lessors are well-capitalized to fund growth over the next 3 years. Liquidity buffers and equity infusions have helped strengthen balance sheets.
7. Regional Leasing Distribution
Map Chart: Regional Fleet by Geography (2024)
| Region | Fleet Size |
|---|---|
| North America | 3,557 |
| China | 1,918 |
| South Asia | 877 |
| Europe | 2,186 |
| Southeast Asia | 1,294 |
With China, India, and the U.S. as hotspots, lessors are diversifying risk but are exposed to geopolitical and regulatory flux.
8. Risk Rankings: Beyond Size
Top Risk-Rated Lessors (2025)
| Lessor | Risk Score |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Aviation Capital | 76.9% |
| Sojitz Corporation | 76.8% |
| Blackrock Investment | 76.0% |
| ORIX Aviation | 74.8% |
| Chishima Real Estate | 72.6% |
Not all giants are the safest. Smart money from JOLCO investors, pension-backed firms, and family offices now dominates the risk-adjusted performance rankings.
9. The India View: Opportunity Amidst Restraint
With IndiGo as the second-largest global lessee and Air India actively expanding, Indian carriers are major clients for lessors. However, geopolitical uncertainties, retroactive tax liabilities, and bureaucratic delays continue to dampen investor enthusiasm.
India’s leasing ecosystem—despite the GIFT City initiative—needs clearer tax frameworks, faster repossession mechanisms, and regulatory certainty to attract more leasing activity onshore.
Conclusion: Resilience in Recalibration
The aircraft leasing industry in 2025 stands at a financial and strategic inflection point. As OEM delays persist, secondary market activity flourishes. As interest rates rise, leasing strategies evolve. And as investors chase risk-adjusted returns, the winners will be those who blend liquidity, discipline, and global agility.
For India, the message is clear: To become a global leasing hub, it must offer not just volume, but certainty.
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