The Way Forward for India’s ALH Dhruv

The Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv stands as a cornerstone of India’s indigenous defense aviation ecosystem, developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to meet the multifaceted operational needs of the Indian Armed Forces. Certified for roles ranging from utility transport and search-and-rescue to anti- submarine warfare, the Dhruv has logged thousands of flight hours since its induction in the late 1990s. With over 300 units in service across the Indian Air Force (IAF), Indian Navy (IN), Indian Army, and Indian Coast Guard (ICG), it represents a symbol of self-reliance in military rotorcraft technology. However, the helicopter’s operational legacy has been marred by recurring incidents, culminating in a severe crisis that has grounded the entire fleet for a significant period.

The trigger was a fatal crash on Jan 5, 2025, involving an ICG ALH Mk-III at Porbandar, Gujarat, which claimed the lives of three personnel. Preliminary investigations pinpointed a premature fatigue failure of the swash plate—a critical component in the rotor control system—as the probable cause. This led to the unprecedented grounding of all ALH variants, halting vital missions and straining logistical chains. HAL’s response has drawn criticism for its lack of transparency; rather than sharing investigative progress, the organization issued a media release perceived as an attempt to silence speculation, further eroding trust among operators and analysts.

Insights from defense commentary platforms like Kaypius.com underscore deeper systemic issues. In “Who is Responsible for Dhruv ALH Longest-Ever Grounding?”, the author details a history of over a dozen crashes since 2002, attributing many to unresolved root causes and HAL’s accountability gaps. A follow- up piece, ““Who is Responsible” — Part 2 (A Designer’s View on ALH Grounding)”, highlights potential manufacturing defects and inadequate testing for marine environments.

This crisis, the longest grounding in the ALH’s history, poses existential risks to India’s defense posture. It demands a multifaceted way forward: technical remediation to address fatigue vulnerabilities, organizational reforms to align design with operational realities, and enhanced certification processes to rebuild confidence. By drawing on flight data, revising protocols, and fostering collaboration, HAL can not only restore the Dhruv’s reliability but also fortify its indigenous programs against future setbacks. This article explores these pathways, offering a roadmap for stakeholders in defense aviation.

Analyzing the Current Crisis

The grounding of the ALH fleet stems from a confluence of operational incidents and technical revelations, amplifying concerns over the helicopter’s airworthiness. The Porbandar crash marked the latest in a series of mishaps that have plagued the platform. The Dhruv has endured multiple major accidents since its operational debut, with causes ranging from engine failures to control system anomalies. These incidents have resulted in over 20 fatalities and significant financial losses, estimated in hundreds of crores. The latest event, however, stands out for its systemic implications: the swash plate’s fatigue-induced fracture, which controls rotor blade pitch and is pivotal to flight stability.

ALH Dhruv aboard INS Vikrant (Photo credits: MOD)

Post-crash inspections, as reported in recent technical briefings, examined swash plates across a substantial sample of the fleet. Findings revealed multiple cracks exclusively in the Mk-III wheeled variants operated by the IN and ICG. No such defects were observed in the skid-equipped versions flown by the IAF and Army. This variant-specific pattern has fueled speculation, though HAL’s reticence—exemplified by its controversial media statement—has hindered open discourse. The absence of transparency contrasts sharply with global norms, where manufacturers like Boeing or Sikorsky routinely update stakeholders on investigations.

The operational fallout is profound. High-altitude missions in Ladakh and Siachen, reliant on skid variants for rugged terrain, face delays in troop transport and reconnaissance. Utility roles in counter-insurgency are similarly compromised, while the IN and ICG—tasked with maritime surveillance and disaster response—suffer acute capability gaps amid rising regional tensions. Economically, the grounding idles production lines at HAL and strains maintenance budgets.

The Facebook post by aviation analyst Syam Nath, shared in Apr 2025, offers a candid insider perspective on the grounding’s intricacies, highlighting HAL’s uncharacteristic opacity as a barrier to resolution. More than three months post- crash, Nath notes that while the swash plate’s premature fatigue failure has been confirmed, the root cause—potentially tied to microstructural anomalies or unmodeled load cycles—remains elusive, with HAL opting for a defensive media release that critics have decried as an attempt to suppress discourse. Drawing from “reliable sources,” Nath reveals that exhaustive inspections of over 100 swash plates uncovered cracks in multiple Mk-III wheeled helicopters, but none in other variants, reinforcing the hypothesis that the issue is not a systemic design shortcoming but a confluence of operational stressors unique to maritime roles. This lack of proactive

disclosure, Nath argues, not only fuels online speculation but also delays fleet certification, underscoring the need for HAL to adopt a more collaborative stance akin to international OEMs during crises.

Nath’s analysis further dissects the fatigue acceleration, attributing it to naval and coast guard usage patterns that impose loads far exceeding initial design assumptions, such as prolonged deck taxiing and high-sink-rate landings on pitching vessels. He posits that inappropriate taxiing techniques—aggressively applying forward cyclic with minimal collective—generate damaging dynamic oscillations in the rotor system, a flaw reminiscent of early Apache helicopter hub failures that were mitigated through procedural updates. Citing a 1980 American Helicopter Society case study on fatigue estimation variances among OEMs, Nath warns against overconfidence in HAL’s methodologies, urging a data-centric reevaluation using Flight Data Recorder logs to recalibrate swash plate lifespans.

From the provided technical analysis, several inferences emerge regarding the crisis’s root:

• Unprecedented Nature of Failure: Swash plate failures have never occurred in the ALH’s 25-year history, suggesting no inherent design flaw but rather an environmental or usage-induced issue.
• Variant-Specific Vulnerability: Cracks confined to wheeled Mk-III models imply operational differences, not a universal defect, allowing for targeted interventions.
• Fatigue Acceleration: The failure’s rapidity—reducing component life by two orders of magnitude—points to unique stressors in naval and coast guard missions, warranting a re-examination of load spectra.

Kaypius.com’s coverage reinforces these points, emphasizing HAL’s failure to conduct thorough root cause analyses in prior crashes. For instance, marine environment’s corrosive effects, unaddressed in initial certification testing, exacerbate fatigue in wheeled variants exposed to saltwater and deck operations. This crisis, therefore, is not isolated but symptomatic of a broader disconnect between HAL’s design assumptions and real-world exigencies.

Technical Way Forward

Restoring the ALH’s operational reliability requires a rigorous technical overhaul, centered on revalidating component lifecycles against actual usage data. The swash plate failure, while alarming, offers an opportunity to refine fatigue modeling, drawing on established aerospace methodologies.

Fatigue life estimation for critical ALH components, such as the swash plate, relies on established methodologies including material S-N curves (which plot stress amplitude against the number of cycles to failure), damage accumulation hypotheses like Miner’s rule, and precise cycle-counting techniques. Miner’s rule, a linear cumulative damage model, posits that fatigue damage from each load cycle is proportional to the ratio of applied cycles to the component’s endurance limit under that stress level; failure is predicted when the sum of these damage fractions across varying loads reaches unity. By leveraging data from the ALH’s Flight Data Recorders (FDRs)—which capture comprehensive metrics on loads, vibrations, and maneuvers—and correlating it with mission profiles specific to Indian Navy (IN) and Indian Coast Guard (ICG) operations, engineers can reassess static and dynamic loads to recalibrate these estimates. However, historical precedents highlight the pitfalls of such approaches: a 1980 American Helicopter Society study showed stark variability, with seven original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) using identical inputs yielding swash plate life predictions from 9 to 2,594 hours under block counting methods, and 58 to 27,816 hours with in-house cycle counting. This variability underscores the imperative for HAL to adopt conservative, validated simulations, potentially incorporating advanced finite element analysis (FEA) to model swash plate stress distribution more accurately, ensuring robust recalibration tailored to maritime stressors.

The installation of Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) is essential for the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv to transition from reactive to predictive maintenance, addressing the fleet’s vulnerability to premature fatigue failures like the recent swash plate incidents. While the ALH’s Flight Data Recorders (FDRs) provide valuable post-flight data, they are primarily designed for accident investigation and exceedance monitoring. This retrospective focus limits FDRs’ utility in forecasting maintenance needs, resulting in undetected cumulative damage from routine operations, particularly in the demanding maritime environments of the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, where subtle rotor oscillations from taxiing or deck landings can accelerate component wear without triggering alerts. In contrast, HUMS offers continuous, aircraft-specific monitoring of rotor dynamics, temperatures, and usage patterns, generating post-flight debriefs and in-flight advisories that enable early anomaly detection and precise fatigue life adjustments under models like Miner’s rule. By augmenting Miner’s rule applications with HUMS-driven empirical data, HAL can achieve more reliable, data-informed revisions, reduce unscheduled downtime by 30-40%, extending the ALH’s overall service life to beyond 5,000 hours per airframe, bolstering fleet-wide reliability, and averting future groundings.

The Vibration Monitoring System (VMS) currently installed on the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv exhibits significant limitations that undermine its effectiveness in preventing fatigue-related failures like the recent swash plate cracks. Installation of a Vibration Management Enhancement Program (VMEP)—similar to that developed for U.S. Army Apache and Black Hawk helicopters—on the ALH fleet would provide a targeted, cost-effective solution to the vibration-induced fatigue issues highlighted in the crisis. VMEP emphasizes vibration monitoring as a primary indicator of aircraft health and fault diagnosis, aligning closely with the ALH’s operational challenges, such as aggressive taxiing techniques and ship deck dynamics that generate high-amplitude rotor oscillations. By focusing on rotor smoothing activities, VMEP can shift maintenance flight hours to operational usage, reducing the disproportionate time spent on in-flight balancing—estimated to consume up to 20- 30% of ALH maintenance schedules in maritime roles—and thereby lowering overall aviation costs. Unlike full-spectrum HUMS, which may yield marginal benefits in low- usage fleets like the ALH due to limited airframe stress cycles, VMEP’s vibration- centric approach offers immediate value for all the ALH variants, enabling early detection of swash plate precursors through real-time data capture. This would facilitate precise fatigue life recalibrations under Miner’s rule, support variant- specific interventions, and generate usage data for ongoing cost-benefit analyses, ultimately enhancing reliability and justifying the modest retrofit investment by preventing groundings and optimizing the fleet’s indigenous sustainment.

Organizational and Management Improvements

Beyond technical fixes, the ALH crisis exposes organizational silos at HAL, where designers operate in isolation from end-users. To bridge this gap, India should emulate the Indian Navy’s successful integration model for its dockyards, embedding senior serving or recently retired officers in key HAL positions.

The Navy’s approach—placing flag officers as dockyard heads—has streamlined maintenance, reduced turnaround times by 30%, and ensured designs align with operational feedback. HAL could adopt similarly: appoint an IAF two-star (Air Vice Marshal) serving or recently retired officer from the Aeronautical Engineering (AE) branch, with experience in helicopter fleet, as CEO of the Helicopter Complex; another two-star AE officer, who has overseen aircraft fleet sustainment at Air HQs, as Director of Operations. At the helm, appoint a three-star (Air Marshal) AE officer with extensive fighter fleet experience as Chairman and Managing Director (CMD). These roles would infuse operator insights into decision-making, fostering accountability and expediting root cause resolutions.

Kaypius.com critiques HAL’s “distributed unaccountability,” where blame diffuses across departments post-incident. User integration would counter this by mandating joint review boards for every major upgrade, mirroring the U.S. Army’s Aviation Engineering Directorate, which co-locates OEM engineers with fleet units. This would accelerate feedback loops, as seen in the Apache’s evolution, and prevent repeats of ALH crashes attributable to unheeded pilot reports on vibrations.

Such reforms demand policy support from the Ministry of Defence, including performance-linked incentives for HAL leadership. By prioritizing operator-led management, India can transform HAL from a production-centric entity to a responsive partner, ensuring the Dhruv’s longevity and bolstering indigenous capabilities.

Enhancements in Certification and Quality Assurance

Certification and quality assurance (QA) lapses have compounded the ALH’s woes, particularly in validating marine-specific durability. Reforms must prioritize independence, rigor, and transparency to restore credibility.

The Centre for Military Airworthiness and Certification (CEMILAC) should conduct mandatory independent audits of HAL’s processes, expanding beyond initial type certification to include ongoing surveillance. This could involve third-party validation of fatigue tests, akin to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency’s (EASA) oversight of rotorcraft OEMs. For marine environments, HAL must enhance protocols: simulate saltwater corrosion and deck vibrations in accelerated life testing, addressing shortfalls noted in Kaypius.com’s analysis of prior crashes.

Reforms at the Directorate General of Aeronautical Quality Assurance (DGAQA) are crucial to bolster quality assurance (QA) across HAL’s operations, including mandatory adoption of digital QA platforms for real-time defect tracking and standardized auditing protocols that integrate risk-based inspections for critical components like the swash plate. DGAQA should also expand its role in independent validation of manufacturing processes, mandating joint HAL-service audits and leveraging AI-driven analytics to predict and prevent quality lapses, thereby aligning QA standards with global benchmarks such as those of the FAA or EASA. Fostering a collaborative ecosystem means regular stakeholder forums with IAF/IN/ICG representatives, replacing opaque media releases with progress dashboards.

Global best practices offer models: The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration integrates military users into Boeing’s QA for the CH-47 Chinook, conducting joint audits that reduced defect rates by 40%. Similarly, the UK’s Ministry of Defence embeds personnel in AgustaWestland facilities, ensuring operator input from design to certification. Adopting these—through bilateral knowledge exchanges—would mitigate “distributed unaccountability” at HAL, embedding a culture of proactive risk management. These enhancements would not only safeguard the ALH but elevate India’s certification standards to international benchmarks.

Conclusion

The ALH Dhruv grounding crisis, while disruptive, presents a pivotal moment for India’s defense aviation sector. By addressing swash plate vulnerabilities through data-informed fatigue revisions, operational tweaks, and variant-specific clearances, HAL can swiftly restore fleet readiness. Organizational infusions of operator expertise and robust QA reforms will prevent recurrence, ensuring the platform’s evolution into a reliable workhorse.

Broader implications extend to India’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. Transparency in investigations, as advocated in Kaypius.com analyses, counters speculation and builds public confidence. User-OEM collaboration—bridging HAL’s design prowess with service realities—will accelerate indigenous programs like the Light Combat Helicopter, reducing import dependencies and enhancing strategic autonomy. Ultimately, a resilient Dhruv fleet safeguards national security, from Himalayan patrols to maritime frontiers, underscoring that self-reliance thrives on accountability and partnership

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Ladakhis Deemed Nonentity – India

Ladakh came into global focus on September 24, 2025 when violence erupted in Leh. A post on X described it a statehood movement led by Sonam Wangchuk intensified, with protesters torching a CRPF vehicle and the BJP office, while Sonam appealed for peaceful protests.

Leh erupts in violence as the statehood movement led by Sonam Wangchuk intensifies, with protesters torching a CRPF vehicle and BJP office. Meanwhile Sonam appeals for peaceful protest.

Never imagined this in leh. Who is responsible & fueling this ? pic.twitter.com/TfSuzgmPni

— Megh Updates (@MeghUpdates) September 24, 2025

BBC reported: India imposes curfew in Ladakh after statehood protests turn violent and internet was shut down. Earlier, the Leh administration didn’t talk to protesters, even when two lost consciousness and were hospitalized. Four protestors died in police firing and 70-80 were injured.   

On September 26, Sonam Wangchuk, scheduled to hold a press conference on the ongoing unrest, was arrested under the National Security Act (NSA) after the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) cancelled the registration of Wangchuk’s NGO (SECMOL – Students Educational and Cultural Movement of Ladakh) under the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA), 2010 for receiving foreign funds.

SECMOL had won the International Terra Award for the best building in July 2016 at the 12th World Congress on Earthen Architecture in France. J&K Governor NN Vohra visiting Leh in 2019 (before formation of UT Ladakh) on SECMOL completing 30 years, said the Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded to Sonam Wangchuk and in 10 years Ladakh will be world famous.

Opinions have emerged that if the Army wants to build a road to the LAC (and any other central project), permission from local councils would be needed under the Sixth Schedule, and the “real motive” behind this demand is to create hurdles in Army’s infrastructure projects in sensitive border areas. They don’t acknowledge that the BJP had promised Sixth Schedule and statehood for Ladakh. But patriotism of Ladakhis is certainly more than those writing such crap. A comment on social media reads: “Theorizing Ladakhis would turn anti-Army and anti-India is like conjecturing PM Narendra Modi embracing Islam to head the Islamic Emirate of India.”

When British officers led the Pakistani Army to invade Ladakh post-Independence, Nubra Guards fought them in absence of the Indian Army. Ladakhis are among the most patriotic and peace-loving. Ladakh Scouts have proved their mettle in all wars.  Anyone who has served in Ladakh would vouch for their patriotism.   

To grasp the realities, one must listen to Maj. Gen. Yash Mor; agitation for UT and jubilation of Ladakhis when it was formed; multiple promises made by the Centre in 2019; aspirations of Ladakhis for jobs, participation in administration bottom upwards, demand for an MP in 7,000 sq km Leh division;  fear of corporate projects affecting livelihood and environment; lack of potable water and absence of sewage and waste disposal;   deliberate intransigence of the Centre and the Leh Administration to address issues, empower locals and dialogue.

Ladakhis environmental concerns are genuine; looking at the disastrous repercussions of raping the Himalayas in Uttarakhand, Himachal and J&K. Times of India of September 27, 2025 states BJP leaders, and even a former RSS ideologue, have joined public appeal to the CJI BR Gavai for reviewing the SC’s 2021 judgement allowing the Char Dham project to continue with widened roads – severe warnings by geologists of disasters in the making are ignored. On August 6, 2010, at least 255 people died in Leh and 71 towns/villages in a midnight cloudburst and heavy overnight rains triggering flash floods, mudflows, and debris flows. Ladakh is prone to natural disasters, including avalanches and mudslides. Landslides block roads on high-altitude mountain passes throughout the year. In winter, many areas are completely cut off for prolonged blockages due to snowfall. .

An example of the politico-corporate nexus is Manipur, where the Biren Singh-regime signed a deal for 6,000 hectares of land with a corporate for palm plantation and producing palm oil. Forcible eviction of tribals living on this land became part of the ethnic cleaning campaign in Manipur. Modi’s eventual visit to Manipur on September 13, 2025, more than two years after violence erupted with 260 killed and 67,000 displaced, made little difference. A day after Modi’s visit, the house of Kuki leader Calvin Aikhenthang was torched in Churachandpur and residence of another Kuki leader, Ginza Vualzong was also targeted. On September 19, an Assam Rifles (AR) convoy was ambushed, killing two AR Personnel including a JCO. These actions were obviously by the Arambai Tenggol, raised by a BJP  MP; now headed by his driver.

Sonam Wangchuk did B Tech in Mechanical Engineering from Srinagar in 1987. He studied Earthen Architecture in France for two years and designed the SECMOL campus that runs on solar energy and uses no fossil fuel for cooking/lighting/heating. In 2005, he was appointed a member of the National Governing Council for Elementary Education in the Union Ministry of Human Resources Development. In 2013, he invented the ‘Ice Stupa’ technique that creates artificial glaciers to store water, releasing it late spring when the farmers need water most. In 2014, Wangchuk was appointed to the Expert Panel for framing the J&K State Education Policy and Vision Document. In 2016, he initiated the project ‘FarmStays Ladakh’ providing tourists homestay with locals. Wangchuk has helped design and oversee construction of several passive solar mud buildings in mountain regions of Ladakh, Sikkim and Nepal.

In 2020, Wangchuk was to lead a ‘Pashmina March’ by Ladakhis to border areas to prove loss of traditional grazing grounds but was stopped under threat of imposing Section 144. Internet was cut off for two months and Wangchuk labelled China stooge on social media. The Centre had allotted 150 sq km of pasture land to private corporations without safeguarding locals, who feared this may increase further aggravating climate change.  

In early 2024, Wangchuk fasted to draw attention to local grievances and climate change, Many Buddhist monks fasted alongside but instead of opening a dialogue, Wangchuk was hounded on social media and again dubbed a Chinese spy. Former CNS and Chairman COSC Admiral Arun Prakash wrote on X: “Having taken my Matric exam from Leh, in 1959, I learnt to admire the simplicity, courage & patriotism of Ladakhi folks. I find it sad that Mr Sonam Wangchuk’s 53-day struggle, to draw attention to local grievances, should invite troll attacks rather than hearing from our govt?”

Having taken my Matric exam from Leh, in 1959, I learnt to admire the simplicity, courage & patriotism of Ladakhi folks. I find it sad that Mr Sonam Wangchuk’s 53-day struggle, to draw attention to local grievances, should invite troll attacks rather than hearing from our govt? https://t.co/B9nG1lKQot

— Adm. Arun Prakash (@arunp2810) April 29, 2024

In September 2024, Wangchuk led a 75-volunteers foot march from Leh to New Delhi. The march was organised by the Leh Apex Body (LAB) and the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA) demanding: statehood for Ladakh; inclusion under the Sixth Schedule to protect tribal and cultural rights; a Public Service Commission to oversee recruitment and administration in Ladakh; separate parliamentary constituencies for Leh and Kargil to ensure better representation. The arduous walk covered about 25-km daily enduring the challenging terrain and weather conditions. But they were arrested on reaching New Delhi and denied any official audience.   Wangchuk later said he submitted a detailed memorandum of demands to PM Modi during his visit to Dras for Kargil Vijay Diwas in July 2024 but had yet to receive a response. 

After the violence in Leh on September 24, 2025, Wangchuk, who was earlier dubbed a Chinese spy, is now being called an ISI agent. The smear campaign says the Wangchuk-led Gen Z protest is similar to the one in Nepal, which will spread to other states and engulf India. Ladakh DGP confirms 44 arrests including Wangchuk who earlier travelled to Pakistan. Police firing is being justified as “self-defence”. The Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA) has accused authorities of “shoot on sight” firing without warning and with the intent to kill. Describing Wangchuk as a peace loving Gandhian, KDA co-chair Asgar Ali Karbalai said, “He never believed in violence, Any fabricated stories against Wangchuk will not be accepted.”

SECMOL has denied receiving foreign funds. MHA knows the funds in question (donations?) came from within India, but without disclosing the source, insist these are foreign funds. One may also recall how swiftly the FCRA was amended when the BJP came to power in 2014 to save both the BJP and the Congress, who had received massive foreign funds, from oversight.

Wangchuk visited Pakistan in February 2025. An Indo-American, who heads a company in the US, is pretty sure this particular post of Wangchuk is AI-generated. Notwithstanding this, if Wangchuk was labelled a Chinese agent in 2020 and again in 2024, why was he permitted to travel to Islamabad? Why is the FCRA violation by SECMOL raised now when the Centre has been scrutinizing foreign funding to NGOs over the past decade? Has the MHA and Leh Administration been playing pocket billiards or building a false case against Wangchuk? 

The media is flooded about Yasin Malik hobnobbing with PM Manmohan Singh.  Malik says six Central governments enlisted him to help resolve the Kashmir issue but names seven prime ministers (VP Singh, Chandra Shekhar, PV Narasimha Rao,  HD Deve Gowda, IK Gukral, AB Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh) and that IB special director VK Joshi deputed him to meet Hafiz Saeed and other Pakistani militant leaders. In 2000, Special IB Director Ajit Doval also met him. Why has Yasin Malik not been hanged in a decade plus of BJP rule despite boasting on BBC’s Hard Talk of killing IAF personnel; given that a special SC Bench was convened on a Sunday when Arnab Goswami was arrested?

The answer came from a veteran-scholar close to the power centre, who writes: “Yasin Malik was an IB asset for a few years but I think he was acting as a double agent and more loyal to ISI. GOI is as incompetent now as it was in UPA. Pahalgam was avoidable but for intelligence inefficiency. Op Sindoor, if they had combined first and second day attacks we wouldn’t have lost five aircrafts and the shock effect would have been tremendous.”

For the Centre, Wangchuk has apparently committed following cardinal sins: one, called out loss of territory to China in 2020 and repeats the same now while the defence minister sang not even an inch of territory lost and the prime minister said na koi aaya, na koi ghusa: two, dared to call for local oversight for Centre allotting land to corporates; three, wants empowerment for Ladakhis who are actually a nonentity. 

A post on social media sums it up by saying: “The pattern of this Modi Govt is very clear and needs no recap. All they want is to ensure that their cronies get as much land as is possible for commercial exploitation. If the Ladakh UT is granted Statehood then an elected State Govt shall not play ball with cronies. Furthermore’ if the demand for the Sixth Schedule is met, most areas of Ladakh shall no longer be available for exploitation. It is therefore very obvious why Sonam has been arrested.” Hence, there is little chance of any change of policy by the Centre and the Leh Administration that must play ball to New Delhi.

Neglecting the demands of Ladakhis can have bearing on India’s national security although the Centre appears unconcerned about this.  But while Wangchuk stands castigated as an ISI-MSS agent, what about the rest of India? Morarji Desai was reportedly a CIA agent but what about the politicians/ministers, diplomats/bureaucrats, corporate and businessmen of today whose wards are studying/have studied in the US and whose children are US citizens? Former RS MP and member of BJP said in recent years that many bureaucrats of the defence ministry are on ISI payroll/blackmail. But what about other ministries, especially the foreign ministry? China has always worked on officials serving in China. The government should heed Lobsang Sangay, former President (Sikyong – Tibetan Government in Exile) drawing attention to China’s strategy of  ‘Elite Co-option’ (buying  intellectuals,  businessmen,  journalists  and YouTubers), warning India is not immune to Beijing’s political designs. Rather than concentrating on the opposition and withdrawing all cases against whoever joins the BJP (no matter how corrupt), government would do well to look within also and holistically identify those working for CIA/ISI/MSS before it is too late.

We pat our backs listening to clips like “Jaishankar told Trump  – Sit Down Boy”, news items like “India tears into Pakistan at UN”, and speculation “Taliban will handover Bagram to India”

While our leaders stand to attention when visiting China, clouds on our horizon are darkening: Trump re-energizing Pakistan and Bangladesh; China’s planned airbase in Lalmonirhat (north Bangladesh; US plan for a naval base in Bangladesh; unconfirmed reports that Pakistan’s order of J-35 stealth fighters (5th Gen) is increased from 40 to 100 (equipped with air-to-air and air-to-surface nuclear capable P-19 & P-21 missiles having range of 450-600 km) with deliveries to be completed in 2026. It is time for India to stand together.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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India in Trump’s Crosshairs

According to an official release, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump, during which Trump extended birthday greetings to Modi.  In a social media post, Modi expressed shared commitment with Trump to advance the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership to new heights.  Modi also reaffirmed India’s support for Trump’s efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On a Social Media post, Trump described the call as “wonderful,” thanking  Modi for his support in seeking an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. This indicates that the call was made by Modi, not by Trump; which is logical if Modi actually ignored four earlier calls by Trump – unless that was paid propaganda. If Modi refused four calls by Trump, how come White House swallowed this snub – no statement?  

The Indian establishment was jubilant with Trump wishing Modi happy birthday. The media, highlighting India’s geographic position, economic strength, and democratic credentials, pointed to Trump unexpectedly shift in praising Modi a “great Prime Minister” and India-US ties “very special”, while Modi, in a measured and statesmanlike response, reciprocated warmly and underlined the strength of the partnership. Also mentioned was the strength of the Indian diaspora in the US that forms a natural bridge between the two democracies and are an important factor in shaping US policies towards India.

Amid this jubilation about the Modi-Trump friendship, we forgot Henry Kissinger had said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” Also, America’s powerful deep state wants a puppet as the POTUS who will continue to wage wars globally, even as it is causing polarization, high-profile killings and deep fissures within America. Who better than a psychotic-sociopath like Trump who increasingly endangers the world? The attack on Capitol Hill organized by him more than four years back (January 6, 2021) was only a small indication. Of course, the deep state allows him to make any amount of money for himself. That’s why his family wealth has nearly doubled to USD 10 billion since he won the second presidency, according to Forbes.

Trump is surpassing expectations of the deep state. Continuously faking Russian airspace violation of NATO-EU countries, he asks NATO to shoot down Russian jets, while NATO prepares to enter Ukraine from the backdoor, with 26 countries prepared to send troops to Ukraine under garb of guaranteeing security. Trump now says Ukraine can win back all its land. Having vetoed the UN move to expose the carnage in Gaza and overlooking war crimes of Ukraine, Trump blasted the UN for not doing its job, while claiming he stopped seven wars (including between India and Pakistan), even while supporting obliterating Palestine and permanentizing the Ukraine War. He wants to sanction the entire International Criminal Court (ICC).  

With all the finesses with which Tel Aviv undertakes precision strikes, missing the Hamas leadership in Doha in the Israeli strike was only aimed at orchestrating the emergency Arab Summit at Doha on September 15, 2025, with Pakistan (the joker in the pack) recommending an Arab-Islamic NATO with its nuclear muscle. Fakery of the summit showing united response to Israel (sic), was actually a signal to Iran, which Trump wants to demolish and make the Middle East kneel. This is hardly surprising with Emir Thani of Qatar (Trump’s bumchum) even gifting Trump a private jet. 

Trump has been ruing the parade on his own birthday totally eclipsed by the massive Victory Day Parade on September 3, 2025. There is a view that this led to Trump wishing Modi on his birthday, while another view is that for billions of dollars of defence exports, including the USD 8 billion deal in the making of India importing P-81 aircraft, Trump would wish anyone – even North Korea’s Kim un-Jong.

Modi’s spectacular worldwide birthday bash was preceded by months of planning, preparation and contacting individuals and organizations, at home and abroad, what was expected of them (as revealed in social media), in addition to flooding the mainstream digital and print media. Even otherwise, every newspaper must carry 5-6 photos of Modi. According to one report, schools have been instructed to show clips on Modi’s childhood till October 2, 2025. But the planning, preparation of America’s deep state against India, culminating with Trump, far outweighs all this. The regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal point to this.

The emergency Arab Summit in Doha on September 15, followed by the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Agreement (SPDA) two days later are mainly Iran-centric but the ‘yes-men’ in India interpreting Trump lifting the waiver on Chabahar (adversely affecting India) as simply keeping “friend” India away from the war on Iran is most stupid. Moreover, Trump has patronized Pakistan and declared the Balochistan Liberations Army (BLA) foreign terrorist organization; having adverse repercussions on India. While acknowledging NATO buys Russian oil, Trump still accuses India and China of fuelling the Ukraine War. But the EU has still warned India on September 17 over Russian oil purchase and military exercises with Moscow; so much for trumpeting that the India-EU trade deal is coming soon.

Trump initially announced USD 100,000 per head per year for foreign nationals working in the US – effective September 20, 2025. But after he was told it would kill the US IT industry. So, he has toned it down to only new entrants, while exempting doctors. Trump’s move was primarily to target Indian employees in the US; also voiced by Charlie Kirk. This will limit India’s wanting to join the US IT industry – why would the company pay USD 100,000 for a new entrant? Our media calls this a golden opportunity for the IT and business in the Global Capability Centre (GCC) plus claiming Bengaluru as India’s Silicon Valley but without acknowledging GCCs are units of multinational corporations (MNCs).

Referring to Trump blasting foreign/foreign-origin employees in the US at the World Economic Forum 2025, a two-star strategist-scholar, an expert in IT and cyber, question why the likes of Sundar Pichai have nothing to say, and adds, “All these honchos have left India for greener pasture.

They are all US citizens, otherwise they cannot climb the ladder. To become a US citizen, they have to go through a process which is not very pleasant including vow to take up arms for the US, if need be. Trump may be the biggest b##%&@& on earth. But we are in serious trouble. Is America going down our concern? The rosy picture of people coming back for Viksit Bharat – why did they leave India? Will they come back to India or go to Europe and China for the moolah? What facilities like world class labs or research centres have we created? GCCs work for foreign industries – what good is it for us if people join GCCs?”

As India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi created history canvassing for Trump on American soil through multiple rallies, even sloganeering ‘Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar” holding Trump’s hand. Some say Trump was miffed when Modi welcomed him in the cricket stadium at Ahmedabad, addressing him as “Dolund Trump”, thinking Modi was referring to the Epstein Files. But that couldn’t be the case. Morality anyway is not in the lexicon of the American hierarchy, with a post reading: “Missing Bill Clinton – Those were the days when the US president focused on screwing just one person p not the whole world”. Now Elon Musk’s father, Errol Musk, is accused of abusing five of his children over three decades!

PM Modi and President Trump at the Motera Stadium (now Narendra Modi Stadium), India

According to some analysts, a major reason why Trump changed his attitude against India is when India started thumping its cultural nationalism globally – not that Trump is not doing the same. India’s ethnic cleansing experiment of Christian tribals in Manipur has also raised concerns of America’s deep state. Trump has Nazi genes, with his grandfather having migrated from Germany, and probably is going after Indians, akin to American invaders hounding the native Red Indians. 

With the America economy in decline and external debt rising to an unprecedented level of USD 25.8 trillion of as of May 2025, there is talk of government shutdown. But this will never happen, as always, because the US Congress will keep raising the limits. Trump will no doubt face criticism and impediments but as Jeffery Sachs says, the Congress has abdicated its responsibility and the judiciary appears non-committal – fearing assassinations? For people who have children and grandchildren in the western world, there is reason to worry. But Trump will generally have his way unless he is impeached – which is unlikely.

The pursuit of excellence is a never-ending process. In India’s case, the problem is not just flaunting cultural nationalism globally that the West abhors, but also failing to recognize there is a problem, diverting attention to side issues plus fakery to impress indigenous population. India is in Trump’s crosshairs and talks on an India-US trade deal are still going on with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goel in the US, following Navarro’s trip to India. The propaganda already is that India has rejected the US deal (what is the offer?) and India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said two days earlier that the ‘reciprocal’ half of that 50% levy could come down to around 10% or 15%. All this while Piyush Goel lauds India-US cooperation in green energy. None in India dare question why the INR is the lowest ever compared to the USD.

Concurrently, EAM Jaishankar, who went to the US in wake of Trump’s 50% tariffs, describes his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as constructive and essential for sustained progress. “Good to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio this morning in New York. Our conversation covered a range of bilateral and international issues of current concern. Agreed on the importance of sustained engagement to progress on priority areas. We will remain in touch,” he posted on X. Similar diplomatic lingo is used with relation to China, while the PLA continues to occupy its new locations in Ladakh and there is no hope whatsoever of pulling back. Most amusing is the Modi-led ‘GST Utsav’ being celebrated in India; with the same government having imposed extremely high GST rates over the past several years screwing the s**t out of the public, especially the lower and middle class with sky-high prices of daily commodities.

The author is an Indian army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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Slow Percolation of AI in Aviation’s Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO) Industry

Beyond the Hype

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer a futuristic concept whispered in tech labs – it has begun percolating into the daily operations of aircraft Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO). While the integration is still in its early phases, the industry is witnessing transformative use cases in predictive maintenance, planning optimization, digital documentation, and supply chain orchestration.

The aviation sector’s strict safety-first culture demands caution, yet the economic and operational pressures faced by airlines and MRO providers are accelerating AI adoption. In an industry projected to reach $119 billion globally by 2030 (Allied Market Research), AI has the potential to cut costs, reduce downtime, and enhance reliability – key drivers in a competitive environment.

Why MRO Needs AI Now

• Operational Pressures
• Rising fleet sizes: Global active fleet is forecast to cross 40,000 aircraft by 2040 (Boeing).
• Maintenance costs: Direct maintenance expenses account for 10 – 15% of airline operating costs.
• Shortage of skilled technicians: By 2035, aviation faces a shortage of 600,000 + maintenance personnel worldwide (ICAO).

These factors necessitate smarter tools, and AI is poised to fill critical gaps.

Figure 1: Global MRO Market & AI Adoption Forecast (2023 – 2030)

Current Applications of AI in MRO

• a) Predictive Maintenance
  AI-driven analytics are being applied to flight data recorders, engine health monitoring, and sensor data.
• GE Aerospace leverages AI to detect early signs of engine anomalies, enabling airlines to avoid costly AOG (Aircraft on Ground) scenarios.
• Lufthansa Technik’s AVIATAR platform integrates AI for real-time fleet health monitoring, helping operators plan ahead of failures.
  b) Documentation & Compliance Automation
• HAECO uses AI to analyze work packages, reducing hours of manual review.
• Document digitization and NLP (Natural Language Processing) systems can flag missing entries in logbooks, ensuring regulatory compliance.
  c) Hangar & Workforce Orchestration
• AI scheduling tools optimize manpower, material, and tooling.
• SIA Engineering and ST Engineering have piloted AI for task assignment, reducing turnaround time (TAT) for C-checks.
  d) Spare Parts Forecasting & Supply Chain
• AI predicts spare demand patterns, minimizing costly overstock and AOG-driven urgent procurement.
• OEMs like Airbus use Skywise Predictive Maintenance to connect MRO providers with part suppliers in advance.

Case Studies from Around the World

• Delta TechOps (USA): Deploys AI-based reliability tracking that has reduced unscheduled engine removals by 15%.
• IndiGo (India): Partnered with Airbus Skywise to implement AI-powered predictive maintenance across its A320 fleet, cutting unscheduled groundings.
• ST Engineering (Singapore): Uses AI to optimize hangar slot allocation, reporting 7 – 10% efficiency improvement in heavy maintenance checks.

Figure 2: Flow of AI in MRO – From Data Capture → Processing → Predictive Insights → Maintenance Action

Challenges Hindering Adoption

Despite the promise, AI percolation into MRO is far from seamless.

• Data Silos: Airlines, OEMs, and MROs often guard data, limiting AI’s predictive power.
• Cultural Resistance: Technician adoption varies – some embrace AI, others view it as job-threatening.
• Certification & Regulation: Unlike avionics software, AI models lack established certification pathways.
• Cost of Transition: Investment in sensors, data platforms, and AI-trained staff can be prohibitive for smaller MROs.

In a recent Aviation Week survey, 62% of industry executives admitted they are “exploring AI” but not yet implementing at scale. Only 30% report actual use today.

Future Pathways: Where AI Will Deliver the Most

• Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance: AI won’t just forecast failures; it will suggest the best action at lowest cost, factoring in parts availability and manpower.
• Digital Twins: Entire aircraft systems (engines, avionics, landing gear) will have AI-driven digital replicas, allowing simulation of wear patterns and pre-emptive planning.
• Paperless & Automated Compliance: Blockchain + AI can ensure maintenance records are tamper-proof, error-free, and regulator-ready.
• Autonomous Inspections: AI-powered drones are already being trialed for visual checks on airframes, reducing inspection time from hours to minutes.

India’s Position in AI-MRO Integration

India, home to one of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets, stands at an inflection point:

• MRO market potential: Projected at $4 billion by 2031 (MoCA).
• Adoption trend: Airlines like IndiGo and Air India (post-Tata acquisition) are piloting AI-driven predictive maintenance through OEM collaborations.
• Local MROs: HAL, AI Engineering Services Ltd. (AIESL), Shaurya Aeronautics Pvt Ltd and some more MROs are beginning to test AI in records management and line maintenance.

Given India’s regulatory rigor (DGCA alignment with EASA norms), AI adoption will likely start in compliance automation and predictive analytics, before moving into autonomous inspections.

Figure 3: India’s AI-MRO Growth Trajectory

To Sum Up: Assistive, Not Replacing

AI will not replace human engineers, but it will certainly become their most valuable co-pilot in maintenance. The percolation of AI in MRO operations is slow but steady – helping reduce costs, improve safety margins, and optimize scarce resources.

The next 5 years will see predictive maintenance mature; the next 10 years could witness AI-driven digital twins and autonomous inspections as the norm. For an industry where one AOG can cost up to $150,000 per day, the incentive to accelerate AI adoption has never been clearer.

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Foreign Dependence, The Root Cause That Propels Nepal Crisis

Nepal is in turmoil even though calm seems to have been restored with the army taking charge and installing an interim prime minister. Parliament has been dissolved and elections are to be held in six months. Political parties have called these steps unconstitutional. These dramatic events were triggered by youth protests. There was so much anger against democratic institutions that the Parliament, Supreme Court, police stations and other key administrative buildings were burnt down.

A parallel has been drawn with similar youth-led movements in Sri Lanka in 2022 and in Bangladesh in 2024. Sri Lanka is a small nation with a population of 22 million and is better off than other South Asian nations. Bangladesh is a big nation with 174 million people but is poor. Nepal has a GDP of $42 billion, with a world ranking of around 110th, a population of 30 million, and in per capita terms, it is ranked at 161st place with $1,458. Therefore, Nepal is both small and poor.

Trade dependence

Small economies cannot produce everything they need and have to depend on imports. Sri Lanka’s trade to GDP ratio is about 0.45, Bangladesh had a ratio of 0.30 before the 2024 disturbances and Nepal in 2023 had a ratio of 0.42. India has a ratio of 0.45 but, as a much larger economy than the other three, it is in a different league. With Trump’s tariffs coming into play, India is also now talking of Atmanirbharta, that is, reducing its dependence on imports. China has a ratio of 0.37 and USA 0.25. 

With the advent of WTO in 1995, globalisation saw an upsurge and the trade to GDP ratio increased dramatically for big and small nations. In 1990, India’s ratio was 0.155, China’s was 0.24 and for the USA it was 0.20. A global division of labour emerged with businesses shifting production to countries which offered a cost advantage, especially, where the wage and logistics costs were low like in China, Vietnam and Mexico. No wonder, Trump has berated them and India for ‘stealing’ jobs from the US.

Many small economies got marginalised by globalisation. They could not become a part of the global supply chains and became narrowly dependent on a few items of export of goods and services. This was an unstable situation since they suffered more during economic shocks. 

For instance, Sri Lanka became more dependent on tourism, which collapsed during the pandemic. The result was that the country did not have enough funds to import food and energy in 2022. That created massive shortages and inflation and triggered generalised protests, which turned into rioting when the government used a heavy hand to suppress the protests. Anger against the corrupt leaders in power boiled over and they had to flee.

Economic dependency

Nepal is also heavily dependent on remittances. They account for roughly 34% of Nepal’s GDP today, whereas in 1995-96, it was 27%. Families receiving remittances have risen from 23.4% in 1995-96 to 77% today. Since few jobs are being generated in Nepal, the youth has been migrating in search of jobs to India and other countries. Unemployment in the age group of 15-24 is 22.7%.

Dependence on remittances sets up a vicious cycle of decline. Those with any skill leave Nepal, thereby impacting its development. It has been reported that in some households, people have stopped working, thereby creating a dependency. Aid from major powers like the US, China and India, has been an important source of receipts in the budget. This reduces the need to raise resources from within Nepal through developing the economy. A part of this aid is siphoned out by the leadership, further setting back development. More importantly, a philosophical change occurs in the nation based on a dependency syndrome.

Role of black economy

Nepali leadership became increasingly corrupt and this was visible in the lifestyle of the leaders and their families. The contrast in their living standard and that of the average citizen became stark. Even the Communist leaders who had fought against the corrupt monarchy got corrupted.

Leadership gave itself immunity from prosecution which emboldened them to circumvent every rule to make money. This blatant disregard of rules affected all institutions like, the bureaucracy, judiciary and police. It undermined the democratic constitution which, while good on paper, became non-functional.

This disregard of the rule of law and growing corruption resulted in rapid change of governments. The leaders wanted power to make money. This set up a vicious cycle of increased political instability and corruption. There were no exceptions and all political parties lost credibility in the public’ s eyes. 

Growing black economy stunts development. It thrives on non-accountability, which undermines democracy, alienates people and breeds cynicism in them. This is visible in South Asia. By lowering ‘investment productivity’ and increasing ‘social waste’, it reduces growth and employment below the economy’s potential. It leads to policy failure so that goals are not achieved –  government’s ‘expenditures do not lead to outcomes – and governments get discredited. Gains from the little bit of development that occurs is cornered by the elite and leads to the dramatic and visible rise in disparities.

Black income generation involves illegality and it has risen sharply in South Asian nations. Underlying black income generation is a triad consisting of corrupt businessmen, politicians and the executive. They get an income over and above their legal incomes. So, they do not check its growth, no matter which party comes to power. Such a triad has existed in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

In Nepal, the anger against this triad has boiled over and was visible in the recent protests.

Evolution of dependency

How did the dependency syndrome and black economy get entrenched in Nepal? Is India an exception?

India gained independence after a long struggle during the national movement for independence. Indian leadership at the time of Independence was nationalist and anti-imperialist. It worked to reduce its dependence on the colonial powers by charting an independent development agenda.

There was considerable political stability in the initial two decades which enabled the pursuit of a long term developmental agenda. This set the stage for future development even though independence has been eroded during the last four decades.

Nepal also struggled against the monarchy over a long period of time. But political leadership was dependent on outside forces (US, China and India) that interfered in Nepal’s affairs and an autonomous development path was not worked out. The existing political instability got magnified after the downfall of the monarchy as the external forces pursued their own interest through political parties. 

The Maoists, who came to power through arduous underground struggle, also got normalised because they acquired power in alliance with other parties. The intense struggle among the ruling groups has been for power and money, not development. The democratic institutions – legislatures, judiciary, bureaucracy and police – were manipulated for power and that led to their decline and further weakening of democracy.

In brief, underlying the explosive events in Nepal is the fact that as a small economy in a globalising world, it faces great instability. The struggle of the political parties against the monarchy did not make them an independent political force due to their dependency on global powers. This undermined the political process thereby aggravating instability. The drive for political power was intertwined with making money by resorting to illegality and that led to spread of cynicism and helplessness among the citizens and to the recent explosive events.

Author: Prof Arun Kumar, The article first appeared in The Wire

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Brussels Nudges Moldova to Triple Its Army – Or Forget European Union Integration

The European Union has clearly asked Moldova to triple the size of its army – from 6,500 to 20,000 troops – by 2027 and tighten conscription rules. This demand was made in a letter from EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, addressed to Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean.

The document makes it clear: Chișinău will have to scrap the three-month shortened service for university graduates and start forcing more young men into the barracks. For a country already bleeding from mass emigration, this is a blow below the belt. Meeting the EU’s demand in such a short timeframe means mobilizing thousands against their will – a move that risks sparking serious social unrest.

The financial side is just as murky: adding 13,500 troops will require massive spending on salaries, food, uniforms, weapons, and infrastructure. Brussels hasn’t promised any real funding but is hinting: fail to comply, and say goodbye to EU integration.

For President Maia Sandu and her ruling PAS party, this likely won’t be a problem – they seem ready to follow any order from Brussels. But the reality is stark: Moldova is not becoming a “partner” of Europe, but rather cheap cannon fodder being prepared for someone else’s war with Russia.

Author: Maxim Ceban

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Permanentizing The Russia Ukraine War

Donald Trump’s periodic assertions of a ceasefire soon in Ukraine are as hollow as his claim about a ceasefire in Gaza soon. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netantahu has unambiguously stated there will be no Palestine; making way for a “Riviera” in Gaza that Trump had talked about – replete with beach resorts, clubs and dance bars to reminiscence his paedophile days with bosom friend Epstein?

Trump revealed his two-timing deceitful character by feigning surprise over Israel bombing the Hamas ceasefire negotiating team in Doha – Israel’s Operation ‘Fire Summit’, which Trump himself had greenlighted. Hebrew Channel 14 reports 10 Israeli warplanes flew 1,800 km through Jordan, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia to launch 10 missiles at the Hamas meeting site. Qatar and CENTCOM were in full picture, with US and UK tankers doing in-flight refuelling and the planes landing in Qatar for refuelling after the strike.

Trump calls Russian President Vladimir Putin his friend, same way he calls Prime Minister Narendra Modi a friend, but simultaneously asking EU to levy 100% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, while his mascot Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wags his tail in unison. The EU, however, reportedly disagrees with Trump’s demand.

It was pretty obvious that the meeting between Trump and Zelensky (with European leaders in tow) at the Oval Office in the White House on August 18, 2025 was a staged show; rehearsed between Zelensky and the European leaders in advance, with Trump kept in the picture. Trump’s telephone call to Putin (in between the meeting) for a Zelensky-Putin meeting as a prelude to peace in Ukraine was more of a charade. French President Emmanuel Macron, who together with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is vying for the leadership of Europe, warned Trump (as pre-rehearsed) the risk of being “played” by Putin despite Putin’s televised speech that Russia poses no threat to Europe. 

When Trump laid out the red carpet at Alaska for a summit with Putin, it looked more out of desperation to somehow get the Nobel Peace Prize.  Putin had said he reached an agreement with Trump, assured Russian readiness to ensure the security of Ukraine, while hoping that Ukraine “won’t throw a wrench” into the process of bringing the war to an end, but emphasizing that the root cause of the war must be addressed; NATO expansion posing an existential threat to Russia.

In February 2025, Trump wrote on his ‘Truth Social’ portal: “Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, talked the US into spending USD 350 billion, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the US and Trump, will never be able to settle.” But now Trump is supporting Ukraine, including supply of Patriot AD missile systems and has approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAM) missiles worth USD 825 million to Ukraine, while saying that Ukraine must have the ability to strike deep inside Russia in order to win the war. Ukraine is already targeting Ukraine with ‘Flamingo’ cruise missile having a range of over 2,982 km. Trump has warned Putin of more sanctions if there is no bilateral Zelensky-Putin meeting.

The situation has reached a geostrategic impasse with 26 countries planning to send troops to Ukraine under the pretext of providing security to Ukraine, with obvious concurrence of Trump, despite Putin assuring security of Ukraine; clearly a NATO plan to enter Ukraine through the backdoor. This is in addition to the fact that western mercenaries are deployed in Ukraine since 2014 when the US completely “took over” Ukraine, as admitted now by  Victoria Nuland.

Back in 2016, Victoria Nuland bragged to the US Congress about how thoroughly Washington had taken over Ukraine after the 2014 coup.

She spelled it out without shame:

US operatives embedded in a dozen Ukrainian ministries.

American-trained cops patrolling 18 cities.… pic.twitter.com/K4Z5EeL1Qs

— Richard (@ricwe123) August 18, 2025

Putin has said that Russia will target any foreign troops in Ukraine. So. the US is faking Russian drones attacking Poland and shot down; with NATO providing the Comprehensive Aid Package to (CAP) to Ukraine.

Russia recently leaked a French map showing how Europe seeks to divide Ukraine; Poland to get Western Ukraine, so  would Romania-Hungary, while the rest of Ukraine would be occupied by a 50,000 strong European force (security guarantors/occupational forces) to extract Rare Earth Elements (REEs) of which the US is also a part. This Western plan is no different from the Sykes–Picot Agreement of 1916 to dismember the Ottoman Empire, as well as dividing the original Koreas, India and Germany; to destabilize these regions/countries although Germany later unification after 41 years.

The above US-NATO plan for Ukraine is to enhance the existential threat to Russia forever; NATO having expanded over the years despite US assurances it would not when the Soviet Union broke up, plus Finland and Sweden made NATO members in 2023-2024.

Trump doesn’t want a ceasefire in Gaza or Ukraine although the White House says, “President Trump and his national security team continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials towards a bilateral meeting to stop the killing and end the war. As many world leaders have stated, this war would have never happened if President Trump was in office (sic). It is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly.”  That’s why Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations are stalled and  Zelensky is strutting around confidently despite more than 1.7 million Ukrainians have been killed/missing since 2022 to August 2025 and massive material losses, including 666 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 80,367 UAVs, 625 AD missile systems, 24,856 tanks and AFVs, 1,588 MLRS, 29,041  artillery guns/ mortars, and 40,622 military vehicles.

Trump has renamed the US Department of Defence as the ‘War Department’ (as it was called during 1789-1949) and War Secretary Pete Hegseth says, “We’re going to go on offence, not just on defence. Maximum lethality, not tepid legality. Violent effect, not politically correct. We’re going to raise up warriors, not just defenders.” This is being viewed in response to China’s Victory Day Parade of September 3, 2025, which had somewhat rattled Washington.

In October 2012, George Friedman wrote in Stratfor: “A new foreign doctrine is emerging in which the US doesn’t take primary responsibility for events, but which allows regional crises to play out until a new regional balance is reached. The US has entered a period in which it must move from military domination to more subtle manipulation, and more importantly, allow events to take their course. This is a maturation of US foreign policy, not degradation. Does not mean the US will disengage from world affairs. It controls the world’s oceans and generates almost a quarter of the world’s GDP. While disengagement is impossible, controlled engagement, based on a realistic understanding of the national interest, is possible. This will upset the international system, especially US allies. ……But constraints of the past decade weigh heavily on the US and will change the way the world works. No one decided on this new doctrine. It is emerging from the reality the United States faces. That is how powerful doctrines emerge. They manifest themselves first and are announced when everyone realizes that that is how things work.”

Currently, a draft 80-page National Defence Strategy (NDS) 2025, circulating in Pentagon and the US strategic community, advocates the US dialling down global commitments to prioritise homeland defence and primacy in the Western Hemisphere; abdicating responsibility to European and Asian allies and partners, and ceding ground to Russia and China in their spheres of influence. That’s why Trump is unlikely to attend the Quad Summit in India? The final NDS 2025 may be announced in the coming weeks, but it essentially would be what the US is already doing – continuing warmongering to advance US national interests without committing own troops, to draw strategic and economic advantage; case in point being using Ukraine as the proxy to fight Russia while keeping America safe. The same pattern would be followed in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East and elsewhere

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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