USA’s New Chapter – Great Game Unfolding In South Asia

The US has opened a new chapter in South Asia using its minion – Pakistan’s FM Asim Munir. Afghanistan’s National Resistance Force (NRF) leader Ahmed Massoud and Pakistan’s ISI chief Shahab Aslam met in Abu Dhabi, with Massoud asked to expand NRF to include all ethnic groups of Afghanistan. Syed Qandil Abbas of Islamabad’s Quaid-i-Azam University says Ahmad Massoud, Marshal Dostum, former military officers and Taliban opponents are forming a coalition – greenlighted by the CIA?  A former Pakistan army officer says Asim Munir is coordinating with NRF to overthrow the Taliban regime.

Massoud has said, “We do not want Afghanistan’s soil to be used to harm Iran, Pakistan etc. We don’t want Afghanistan to become centre of geopolitical conflicts once again. We just want to live in peace and friendship with our neighbour countries.”  Massoud called upon Pakistan to support people of Afghanistan saying the only solution is a legitimate Afghan government.  According to a post on X, the NRF has seized the Tala-Barfak highway; part of the Baghlan-Bamyan (B2B) highway project – alternative to Salang highway.  Najam Sethi has praised Massoud for supporting Pakistan, indicating  Pakistani assistance to NRF is similar to India assisting Taliban. The message is unambiguous.

Above developments followed Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mutaqqi’s week-long India visit after the United Nations gave “temporary” exemption from his travel ban on – obviously  on US insistence.  Massoud backs Pakistan’s claims about Taliban supporting and providing safe haven to TTP in Afghanistan – a fact well known. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi has warned Taliban over the Helmand River dispute, saying construction of dams in Afghanistan prevents Iran from obtaining sufficient water and Iran will act if Taliban doesn’t stop. India’s offer of support and assistance to Taliban for building more dams in Afghanistan runs contrary. America’s sweetener to India is lifting sanctions on Chabahar for six months.

The US-Pakistan-backed NRF clash with Taliban leaves little leeway for Indian projects and investments in Afghanistan’s minerals. The US deliberately massive quantities of arms-armament for Taliban in 2021. Pakistani military/mercenaries would now fight alongside NRF. When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, a weak-division worth Pakistan army- Taliban were inside Afghanistan but the US permitted their airlift to Pakistan on request from then Pakistan’s army chief Pervez Musharraf.

After the Taliban seized Kabul in 2021, Pakistan conducted air/drone strikes against NRF and guided the Taliban offensive in the Panjshir Valley, Now Pakistan would do the opposite. Was Muttaqi’s India visit a US trap? India provided a public platform to Muttaqi in a joint press conference, which no other country has. Muttaqi was part of the Taliban government when India handed over terrorists, Masood Azhar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Mushtaq Zargar to the Taliban at Kandahar airport post the hijacking of India Airlines flight IC-814 in December 1999.

Will Asim Munir now bomb Taliban hierarchy with OSINT/US help? After handing Afghanistan to the Taliban, watch the US taking moral high ground of giving Afghanistan a democratic NRF government. But America’s game in Bangladesh appears opposite with clashes to bring back ousted PM Sheikh Hasina and Hasina talking of returning to Dhaka. Won’t she be killed on arrival? The intention appears to be to replace Mohammad Yunus with a more radical figure to accelerate minority killings, particularly Hindus, and wage jihad against India. Concurrently, Turkey is training over 300 Syrian soldiers in two bases in Turkey under a Syria-Turkey (courtesy Washington) with expected number to increase up to 20,000 – revitalizing al-Qaeda similar to ISIS trained and armed by Turkey in 2012-2013 with US and British support.

Coming to the Delhi and Islamabad blasts, Afghanistan’s  Nangarhar-based Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), affiliated to TTP, has claimed responsibility for the Islamabad suicide bombing.  Pakistan first blamed India for the blast but eventually Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi confirmed the bomber was Afghan national Usman Qari Ilyas. The Delhi blast was horrific with 13 killed and over 24 injured albeit some witnesses claim more than 50 killed. Educated, well off terrorists is no surprise after 9/11 and other similar acts. So many terrorist-doctors in the ecosystem is ghastly, but could we have avoided the Delhi blast? A veteran-scholar with decades of experience in intelligence says, “Reservations in civil services has compromised governance efficiency – reduced to 20% with 50% reservations or 35% at best. About 25-30% intelligence resources are deployed for political snooping in the field. Agencies which shouldn’t be heard or seen are making headlines on public forums. NIA/Police on TV soon after Faridabad raids and arrests created panic resulting in terrorists moving out in i20 car and blasting it; compromising further investigation. Police shouldn’t have made anything public unless all arrests and interrogation were completed. This two-minutes fame to appear on TV has largely screwed up operations.” The first job of police in a terrorist attack is crowd control, as was  conspicuous in 9/11. Did we do so in the instant case?

Our intelligence agencies woke up after al-Qaeda gave a call for lone-wolf attacks in India. To divert attention from the avoidable Delhi blast, long-winding WhatsApp messages describe how India was “saved” from the plan of killing 50,000 Indians on the coming anniversary of 26/11. A nonagenarian, having spent a lifetime serving with United Nations, says, “It’s all composed by the BJP IT Cell like a story teller. BJP takes every situation as an opportunity to speak highly of Modi ji and Amit Shah.” TV channels are giving detailed plans of nationwide terrorist strikes in December 2025, as if interrogations of the accused are completed and the plans handed over to these anchors.

Have we uncovered everything or is this a tip of the iceberg, with the blast at Srinagar’s Nowgam Police Station killing at least 9 and injuring 29? The terrorist eco-system in India has been systemically embedded over the years by Pakistan and state-sponsored regional/global terrorist organizations. Watch the land controlled around defence establishments, highways, airports, railway stations/rail lines and the like. The female terrorist Dr Shaheen has foreign contacts on LinkedIn, including by Pervez ul-Hassan who was CO of Military Hospital, Rahim Yar Khan. Are only doctors part of this ecosystem? Is indoctrination only in specific colleges/universities or starts in madrassas? In how many more places is RDX and Ricin stored? Are we prepared for all forms of terror attacks?

A seminar in Baghdad in 2014 and another later in Herat saw discussion on interpreting the Quran. One cross-section says there is nothing wrong with the teachings but other disagree. Watch one saying Quran encourages Muslims to become terrorists. Ultimately it boils down to inducing and nurturing radical ideology – child-soldiers to professionals or at any age. Pakistan produces some  1,00,000 radical Islamists annually from 32,000 madrassas. 

In Democratic Afghanistan, Afghans were well disposed towards India/Indians. What is good for Afghan people – Taliban or NRF? Did we have to take Muttaqi to the hardcore Islamic seminary Darul Ulum (Deoband).  Taliban-TTP and al-Qaeda (aligned with them) aim for a global Islamic Caliphate under Sharia rule. Taliban want to transit India for meeting Muslims in Nepal, while ISI is relocating bases in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Today, Taliban, al-Qaeda, ISIS-K, and Haqqani Network operate in mutual support from Afghanistan. Ironically, India treated diplomats/staff of the erstwhile Afghan government at their missions in India very shabbily; by design, under pressure or bribe?

There are calls for immediate launch of Operation ‘Sindoor 2.0’ but at the security meet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistan wasn’t named. A civilian intelligence expert had warned during Op ‘’Sindoor’ saying, “Airstrikes on terrorist training centres don’t achieve anything; they neither eradicate terrorists nor terrorism, but rather create more and more terrorists. This would give a new impetus to terrorism in Pakistan against India, potentially involving the Turkish MIT, MI6, as well as the CIA.” Asim Munir now wields total power in Pakistan. The CIA would love another India-Pak conflict, especially if China gets physically involved. Do we realize America handing over Afghanistan to Taliban in 2021 on August 15 (India’s Independence Day) was a calculated punch on India’s nose? Also, this was consequent to US-Pakistan talks in Qatar.

Kinetic strikes are no response to terror-centric hybrid war. Before the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, India had the opportunity to establish covert presence in Afghanistan; paying Pakistan in the same coin from behind. This suggestion to the e government was rejected, saying this is the job of R&AW (sic). Now Indian presence at Ayani Air Base (Tajikistan) has also ceased – another foreign policy failure. Pakistan’s proxy war should have been transported back across the border years back, but we lack that political will even today. India permits Taliban to quietly spread their wings here from 2021; believing Taliban-TTP will stop Pakistani terrorism in India? Do we understand the difference between talking to the Taliban and relying on them?

To address the terrorist ecosystem in India, we must:

• See through the US game of acting against ‘Violent Terrorism’ to advance their national interests, but ignoring ‘Non-Violent Terrorism’ to breed more terror. India needs a comprehensive and continuous de-radicalization program.
• Review organization and tasking of intelligence agencies and training of police forces, addressing abovementioned flaws.
• Interrogation, prosecution (once charge proved) and punishment must be quick. How can we justify a terrorist like Yasin Malik, who boasted on BBC of killing IAF personnel, still isn’t hanged, and J&K DSP Davinder Singh caught with two Hizb-ul-Mujahideen terrorists walking free? These are just two examples, among many, of India’s polluted political machinations.  
• Dealing with terrorists, irrespective of religion, must be ruthless.

Finally, Taliban have unveiled a ‘Greater Afghanistan’ map that includes Pashtun and other regions of Pakistan – like Muhamad Yunus propounding ‘Greater Bangladesh’ incorporating India’s northeastern states. Will a Greater Afghanistan under Taliban (with its regional fallout), a Greater Afghanistan under NRF-headed democracy, or an Independent Pashtunistan meet India’s national interests? Mere shadow boxing with the Taliban would be naïve.

The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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Why AI Isn’t a Bubble — It’s India’s Next Competitive Advantage

Every few decades, a technology doesn’t just transform business – it redefines it.

In the 1980s, it was the personal computer.
In the 1990s, the internet.
In the 2000s, cloud and mobile computing.
Today, it’s AI – and India is moving faster than almost anyone else.

From Stability to Advantage

The stability of a business – or a nation’s economy – comes from predictable value creation.
And predictable value creation is built on sustainable competitive advantages.

But there’s a secret:
These advantages don’t last unless they’re continuously renewed through innovation.

India’s business schools and universities have understood this truth earlier than most.
From AI-enabled MBA courses to AI-driven case study platforms and startup incubators, Indian institutions are turning innovation into infrastructure.

Why AI Is Different

AI isn’t a passing trend or a speculative bubble.
It’s an innovation multiplier – amplifying every discipline, every classroom, and every market function.

While many U.S. business schools are still debating ethics committees and pilot programs, India’s educators are building AI-first curricula that connect management theory with real-world analytics, automation, and entrepreneurship.

AI isn’t replacing talent; it’s upskilling an entire generation to think, lead, and create at exponential speed.

The India Model: Innovation as a Habit

India’s advantage lies in its mindset – jugād meets GPT.
A culture of creativity and constraint, now powered by access to generative tools and open-source ecosystems.

This isn’t a bubble.
It’s the foundation of the next wave of economic growth – one that fuses human intelligence, artificial intelligence, and ethical ambition.

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Race For India’s Next Chief Of Defence Staff (CDS) Heats Up

Politicization of the military and militarization of politicians has accelerated in recent years. Witness bureaucracy-backed politicians sporting military uniforms, head dresses (some over pyjama/dhoti) and imported goggles, strutting around like roosters. But as Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw once said – without knowing the difference between a guerilla and a gorilla.

Braggards are galore. Home Minister Amit Shah told Parliament we will take back POK and Aksai Chin. So, China’s 2020 Ladakh invasion shut the gate to Aksai Chin. Before the 2024 general election, UP CM Yogi Adityanath said if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins, he will take POK within three months. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh yodels POK will automatically fall into our lap – like Newton experienced the apple. So, Newton formulated the Law of Universal Gravitation and Rajnath lyrics Not Even an Inch of Territory Lost (in Ladakh)– willful subterfuge! This, after meekly vacating the Kailash Range and no question now of any PLA moving back from the LAC.

An erudite veteran-scholar wrote two years back the government has so infected the military’s head that the fence is now eating the crop. Two recent articles must be read; one by former CNS Admiral Arun Prakash and another by veteran Lt Gen HS Panag.

Admiral Arun Prakash finds a push towards public display of a politically-motivated religious-cultural identity with senior military leaders in uniform participating in religious ceremonies with politicians and increasing references to mythological/religious themes in public briefings/utterances; to please the political establishment – violative of the oath of allegiance to the Constitution. He describes in detail grave consequences of political polarization for the military and national security.  

Gen Panag points out Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and COAS Upendra Dwivedi, warning Pakistan of changing its history and geography, incredulous and bizarre. CAS ACM AP Singh also talked of 12 to 13 PAF aircraft downed in Operation ‘Sindoor while dismissing Pakistan’s claims of shooting five to six fighter IAF aircraft on May 7. Gen Panag says India must formalise national security strategy and national defence policy; military capability must enable offensive deterrent on Pakistan and dissuasive deterrent on China. Victory is in the psychological domain, not in quantifying physical damages; focus should be for  effecting psychological paralysis. Our narrative should have focussed on IAFs full control over Pakistani skies on May 10, with multiple PAF assets neutralised. He emphasizes the military must give professional advice to the government, with moral courage to point flaws in the strategic directions received.

When Gen Dwivedi visited Jagadguru Rambhadracharya’s ashram in Chitrakoot in May 2025, the seer asked him for POK in Guru Dakshina (Teachers Fee). Dwivedi didn’t mention Rajnath had declared POK will fall automatically in our lap. One view is Dwivedi plans to quietly pluck POK from Rajnath’s lap and gift it to the seer. Ironically, service chiefs are falling over each other to become the next CDS. ACM AP Singh, who earlier claimed six PAF aircraft destroyed in Op ‘Sindoor’, now says 12 to 13. Observers feel Dwivedi has a major lead in the CDS race, as he is readying for a political role even CDS, looking at the manner he is greeted at his hometown.

Gen Dwivedi capitalized on Op ‘Sindoor’ by using it as a symbol on his official letterhead, which FM Sam Manekshaw never did after the greatest Indian victory with 93,000 Pak prisoners. There are no limits to buttering the political hierarchy. A former CNS spent government funds to instal a Shivaji statue on civil land introduced kurta-pyjama in officer messes, perhaps taking the cue from the DRDO using government funds to make a silver carriage for the Rath Yatra. But his future ambassadorship went down the drain when the statue collapsed. Ironically these  jokers give up dignity without acknowledging karma is unalterable – looking at the end the first CDS met.

India achieved big in Op ‘Sindoor’ but the talk of free-hand to the military is poppycock looking at who all were singly summoned to the PM’s house by night. The military hierarchy lacked the spine to point out the flaws in the PM’s strategic direction – only targeting terrorist targets on the first day which resulted in the IAF losing six fighter jets, including one Rafale, on May 7. External intelligence under NSA Ajit Doval was atrocious – we didn’t know most terrorist hideouts had been vacated, American nukes are stored in areas of Kirana hills and Nur Khan, Nur Khan Air Base is under US control, and how Pakistan could hit IAF jets especially with IAF pilots sans encrypted communications.

About 30% Indian MPs and MLAs face serious criminal cases. The worst was Rajnath telling Parliament no loss of material and men in Op ‘Sindoor’. Morality is alien to politicians and this wag habitually lies in Parliament, but not honouring sacrifices of men in operations is sacrilege. ACM AP Singh at least visited injured IAF personnel but Gen Dwivedi didn’t even do that. Why are service chiefs sloganeering like politicians or it doesn’t matter once conscience is killed? The Navy’s so-called ‘Bara Khana’ aboard INS Vikrant for Modi was no less than a colonial dinner minus the wines.    

Most national leaders have idiosyncrasies – the most idiotic being US President Donald Trump. But Modi’s penchant for theatrics and self-aggrandizement are at bursting point. In a writeup titled ‘The Emperor has No uniform – And What A Fall It’s Been’ a veteran wrote that Modi’s visit to INS Vikrant was not a gesture of leadership or national pride but another hollow over-production; familiar vanity parade with dramatic visuals, choreographed camera angles, and yet another round of wardrobe drama – a leader dressed for the lens rather than the moment. Link to this Facebook post is naturally rendered  dysfunctional but looking at the coverage of Modi waving to a fighter jet taking off, an Indo-American compares it to Modi waving a green flag to a passing train.   

Who decided to rename Infantry Day as Shaurya Divas? Infantry Day is unique to the Infantry but Shaurya is not limited to the Infantry alone. Speculation is Shaurya Divas is pay back by CDS Anil Chauhan to honour NSA Ajit Doval’s son (Shaurya) since Chauhan as three-star retiree was under Doval for nine months and then elevated to four-star CDS. Another post says our traditions, our history, our honour, being destroyed one step at a time – but Dwivedi is mum as bitten by a snake. Chauhan also publicly said we don’t need a written national security strategy; to protect Doval’s failure to define it despite being officially tasked to do so years back?

The current multiple military exercises are supposedly to intimidate Pakistan. But then Taiwan (1/16th the size of Ukraine) should have surrendered with PLA exercises around the island country over the past several months/years. Would Rajnath posing with Bhairav Commandos, yet to be fully organized and equipped, scare Pakistan? Isn’t it pathetic that despite repeated intelligence reports of 120 heavily armed terrorists in the launchpads across the Line of Control (LoC) in J&K waiting to cross into India, the political hierarchy can’t muster the spine to hit them? 

India is out of ’Ayni’ and ‘Farkhor’ air bases in Tajikistan, jointly operated by the IAF and the Tajik Air Force that gave India a strategic advantage in Central Asia and Afghanistan. To cover up this foreign policy failure, false narrative is built that India is to occupy Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base

and another saying IAF is already operating from there.  Also, there are posts (in English and Hindi) that India has widened the Siliguri Corridor to 60-km; masking the activity from the world with a special satellite.  One deep-fake shows an army officer saying one terrorist  attack in India will change the map of the world – either we will expand our Chicken neck or break the neck of Pakistan.

Indian Army is preparing for something really big.

One Terrorist attack in India will change the map of world.

Either we will expand our Chicken neck or will break the neck of Pakistan.

pic.twitter.com/bQYVulfklV

— Akshit Singh (@IndianSinghh) October 30, 2025

One doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry, but with no action to block such fakes, these are possibly government-sponsored.

Modi doesn’t have to be accountable to anyone – he has avoided press briefing since he became prime minister. But the military hierarchy salivating over carrots must remember they have to look soldiers in the eye – choose between being upright or spineless. Finally, readers can view what a veteran has posted on Facebook and Linkedin and draw their own conclusions.

PN: The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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Opportunities for Establishing MRO Facilities in Commercial/ Defence Aviation, Drones, AAM, and GCC’s in India

On 12 June 2025, tragedy stuck when Air India Flight 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, crashed shortly after take-off from Ahmedabad to London, claiming 242 lives onboard and 19 on the ground. Preliminary findings have revealed that ‘Both engines lost thrust after their engine fuel control switches moved from “RUN” to “CUTOFF.” While the exact cause of the switch movement (mechanical, human, inadvertent, deliberate) remains under scrutiny, a 2018 FAA advisory had already flagged issues regarding the locking mechanism on these switches. This raises a critical question; Could a robust domestic Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) ecosystem have caught this flaw earlier through mandatory checks or retrofits? With comprehensive MRO capabilities extending to heavy maintenance, oversight might have been more rigorous. Earlier warnings, like the FAA advisory, could have prompted mandatory checks or upgrades in India, ensuring faster compliance and mitigating risks. Although the AI-171 accident can’t yet be definitively linked to MRO shortcomings, the absence of a comprehensive domestic MRO ecosystem undoubtedly weakens India’s aviation safety framework.

India’s civil aviation sector, now the world’s third-largest domestic market, has seen remarkable growth. Annual passenger traffic at Indian airports jumped from about 341 million in FY20 to over 411 million by FY25. Projections from industry and government suggest this will rise to 470 million by FY27 (@CAGR of around 7% from FY25) and a staggering 1.1 billion by 2040, a sixfold increase from 2018 levels. To meet this burgeoning demand, India’s commercial aircraft fleet will need to expand from the current 800+ aircraft (as of 2024) to nearly 2,360 by 2040. Indian airlines are placing massive orders, including a shift toward wide-body models for long-haul routes.

In parallel, India’s defence aviation sector maintains over 2,000 aircraft, including fighters, transports and helicopters, where operational readiness is non-negotiable. Demand for drones, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is also skyrocketing. These trends underscore the urgent need for a strong domestic MRO infrastructure.

MRO is a cornerstone of the aviation industry value chain, ensuring aircraft safety and airworthiness. Despite being one of the largest civil aviation markets globally, India has limited full-scale aircraft MRO players to cater to its growing demand. This supply-demand gap. Combined with India’s abundant resources and supportive government policies, creates a golden opportunity.  By localising MRO facilities, India can emerge as a hub for South-Asian and Middle East, boosting safety, cutting lead-times, building skilled workforces, saving foreign exchange and generating 2,00,000 to 3,00,000 jobs.

Market Overview and Demand Drivers

Market Overview

• Commercial Aviation MRO.         India’s commercial fleet expanded from 400 aircraft in 2014 to 644 in 2023, eyeing 2,360 by 2040. The segment at US$900 million in 2022, drives the broader MRO growth to US$4 billion by 2031, necessitating 200-300 annual major checks.
• Defence Aviation MRO.    India’s defence aviation fleet exceeds 2,000 platforms, many aging (Mi-17 helicopters, IL-76 transports, jaguar fighter), mid-life upgrade (Mirage 2000, Su-30) and newly inducted (Rafale, Apache, chinook, C-17 Globe master, C-130J etc) fuelling a US$1.8 billion MRO market in 2021 projected to US$3 billion by 2031. Growth is propelled by low reliability, obsolescence and indigenization under Aatmanirbhar Bharat. Base Repair Depots (BRDs) handles only basic maintenance and predominantly depend upon OEMs for spares.
• Drone MRO. The drone market, valued at US$1.5-1.9 billion by 2026 and US$23 billion by 2030, integrates defence aviation via deals like the ₹34,500 crore 31 MQ-9B Predators. Local MRO mandates in JVs (General Atomics-Bharat Forge) and HAL’s Bengaluru engine facility bridge civil-defence gaps.
• Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) MRO.     AAM’s US$1.42 billion market in 2025 surges to US$8.97 billion by 2031 (35.2% CAGR), tackling urban congestion in Delhi/ Mumbai/ Bangalore. Initiatives from Sarla Aviation in Bangalore, e-Plane in Chennai and healthcare drone deliveries emphasize the need for specialized MRO to sustain electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles.
• Global Capability Centres (GCCs) for MROs. India hosts over 1,700 GCCs across sectors, employing 1.6 million people and capturing 10% of global aerospace value chain. By 2030, this could expand to 2,100 GCCs, generating over US$100 billion annually. Aviation focused GCCs such as Rolls Royce’s, Collins Aerospace, Airbus Bengaluru are advancing R&D in prognostic/ Condition Based maintenance (CBM), cybersecurity and centralized IT/ support for OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers from their Indian captive centres, reducing costs by 20% via local talent.

Demand drivers.

• Fleet expansion & utilization. Commercial airlines have ordered over 1000 aircraft for delivery in the 2025 and 2030. Higher utilization will increase the need for line checks, heavy checks and shop visits.
• On-shore substitution. Complex maintenance, like engine overhauls and heavy checks, has traditionally been outsourced abroad. It is now substitutable due to policy reforms (tax rationalization), investments by airlines/ OEMs and emerging Indian heavy/ engine/ component MRO capacities.
• Defence recapitalization & life-cycle support. Defence platforms (fixed & rotary wing) require long-term sustainment. Government emphasis on indigenization opens door for public – private partnerships.
• New segments (AAM/drones). Rapid adoption of drones for logistics, agriculture, plus emerging AAM (eVTOL) roadmaps, demands specialised maintenance for battery/ propulsion, avionics and unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

Regulatory & Policy Reforms

• MRO Policy. Offers 30 year land leases, AAI royalty waivers and development at eight designated airports, plus skill centers for defence technology.
• Aatmanirbhar Bharat. Provides grants for aerospace corridors in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, along with IAF Expression of Interests (EOIs) for OEM JVs.
• National Civil Aviation Policy. Simplified GST and import duties to 5% for aircraft & parts, allows 100% FDI and approvals streamlined. This eliminates historical cost barriers, improving economics for domestic MRO over overseas options.
• National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship.  Emphasizes inclusivity, global standards and industry collaboration. It integrates skill development via the Aerospace and Aviation Sector Skill council, expands training facilities, promoting digital skills (e.g. drone operations), advances gender inclusion and partnering with industry for practical training and curriculum upgrades. Notably, Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) now permits candidates from arts, commerce and vocational streams to train as pilots after foundational assessments, broadening access and addressing workforce shortages without compromising on competency or safety.
• State Incentives: Examples include Odisha’s ₹80 crore support for Air Works Bhubaneswar facility (50% capital subsidy, rent/ESI relief) and Gujarat’s July 2025 MRO event signaling its hub ambitions.
• DGCA/ Drone Rules. Establishes framework for UAS operations, remote pilot licensing and type-certification helps scale drone MRO and supporting AAM safety. Permits 100% FDI in MRO permitted and mandates technology transfer in deals like HAL-SAAB for EW systems.

Opportunity segments

• Commercial aviation MRO (Near-Term / Long-Term)
• Line Maintenance at Major Hubs. Focus on A and B-checks for high recurring revenue with low capex. Scale via regional contracts with carriers & third-party providers.
• Base (heavy) Maintenance & Modifications.  Involves C-checks, structural repairs for higher margins, but requires significant capex (hangars, tooling, certification). Partnership/ JV models with captive airlines, OEMs and local partners can accelerate capability. Investment by IndiGo and Air India near Bengaluru airport signal market potential.
• Engine & Component MRO: Engine overhauls are a top global revenue driver. Starting with narrow-body engines offers strong import substitution, progressing to wide-body.
• Defence aviation MRO (strategic / medium-term)
• Life-cycle support and Depot Maintenance: India’s defence modernisation creates recurring demand for sustainment, opportunities for OEM-led private sector involvement and public/ private partnership with HAL and defence estates.
• Obsolescence & Spares Ecosystem. Domestic spares manufacturing and repair networks reduce logistics delays and enable quicker turnarounds, aligning with Make-in-India initiatives and offset requirements.
• Global Capability Centre (GCC) for MRO (High-Value, Low-Footprint)
• GCC for MRO. Drives innovation in engineering, digital maintenance platforms, R&D, predictive analytics, supply chain management, certification support, cybersecurity, IT support and technical publications. GCCs enable global MRO networks to consolidate higher-value tasks in India for cost savings and talent leverage.
• Value proposition. Reduces opex for condition-based maintenance (CBM), accelerate SOPs, minimise downtime via predictions and manages spares pooling and logistics.
• Advanced Air Mobility (eVTOL) & Drone MRO (emerging / long-term)
• Drone MRO. Smaller footprint facilities for battery, propulsion, LRUs & avionics and regulatory clarity from Drone Rules accelerates scale. Opportunities in tier-1/2 cities for faster turnaround and certified repair shops.
• eVTOL/ AAM. eVTOL fleets will require innovative maintenance regimes (battery systems, electric motors, thermal management, and frequent component swaps). India is in the process of developing AAM roadmaps, it is advantageous to establish vertiports adjacent to MRO hubs.

Economics and Investment case

• CapEx Buckets. Heavy capital expenditure is required to establish MRO facilities like hangars, apron, tooling & test cells, component shops (avionics, composites, NDT), engine test beds, digital infrastructure & GCC set-up, certification and approvals.
• Revenue model. line maintenance (recurring, low margin), heavy checks & engine overhauls (projected high margin), component repair & modification (mid margin), GCC revenue (high margin, recurring subscription/ contract).
• Indicative payback drivers. Long-term contracts (5–10 yrs) with carriers, exclusive airline partnerships and capturing export MRO work from nearby markets (South Asia & Middle East) would accelerate breakeven. Market projections show India’s MRO reaching US$6 – 7 billion by 2030–2033.

Capability & skills (supply side)

• Key Skill Gap. Non availability of adequate licensed AMEs (Aviation Maintenance Engineers), avionics specialists, composite & structural technicians, engine mechanics, software/ data scientists (for GCC), UAS technicians and battery/ electrical technicians.
• Talent Supply. India has a deep engineering talent pool but needs focused vocational training & AME pipelines. Public/ private training partnerships, upskilling programs and DGCA-approved AME schools should be scaled. Align defence-trained technicians with AME certifications.

Risks & mitigants

• Regulatory/ Certification Delays.  Mitigate via early DGCA engagement, hiring regulatory experts and working through OEM certification pathways.
• IP & OEM Access Constraints. Address through JVs/ licensing, OEM authorised shop status or focus initially on non-sensitive work (e.g. line maintenance, avionics swaps).
• Capital Expenditure Intensity & Asset Idling. Phased expansions (line maintenance & component overhaul → heavy maintenance → engine overhaul) to be carried out to preserve capital efficiency and secure anchor customers.
• Skilled labour shortage.   Build training hubs, partner with vocational institutes, offer apprenticeship programs and employ GCC to attract talent with higher value workstreams.

Recommended phases to setup MRO facility in Aviation Sector

• Phase 1 (0–18 months). Establish/ expand line maintenance & component shops in 2–3 hubs (Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai). Set up an MRO GCC for predictive maintenance and engineering support. Secure anchor contracts with major carriers.
• Phase 2 (18–48 months). Build hangars for C-checks/ heavy maintenance, engine overhaul capabilities via JV with OEM/ authorised engine MRO. Pursue DGCA base-MRO approvals concurrently.
• Phase 3 (48–72 months). Expand into defence sustainment contracts and export markets (South Asia, Middle East). Invest in AAM/ drone capability (battery labs, UAS repair) and certify for eVTOL maintenance.
• Digital & GCC. Integrate a captive GCC (engineering + data) from day one for CBM/ predictive maintenance products and reduce MTTR.
• Talent & Training. Forge AME school partnerships, apprenticeship pipelines and continuous learning program linked to DGCA approvals.
• Commercial Model. Blend captive (airline-owned), JV (OEM & investor) and third-party MRO models.
• Policy engagement. Collaborate with MoCA, DGCA and state governments to secure land/ incentives and expedited approvals (e.g. GST clarity, state GCC policies).

Conclusion

India’s aviation sector is on the cusp of explosive growth, but without a solid MRO ecosystem, it risks compromising safety, efficiency, and economic gains. By capitalizing on policy reforms, a talented workforce, and smart investments, India can fulfill its MRO needs and position itself as a global hub for South Asia and beyond. Opportunities in commercial aviation, defence, drones, AAM, and GCCs promise 200,000-300,000 jobs, foreign exchange savings, and elevated safety standards. The moment to invest is now—India’s skies are ready for takeoff.

PN: The author, Col Rajarajan M is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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Suspicions Galore as Indigo’s Co-founder Flies Out Of India

India’s aviation industry is often a graveyard of broken ambitions. Kingfisher went bust. Jet Airways stalled on the runway. Air India had to be rescued. And yet, amidst all the turbulence, one airline not only survived but soared. And that airline is IndiGo.

With over 2,200 daily flights and more than 430 aircraft, it holds a market share of over 60%. Its parent company, InterGlobe Aviation, is valued at ₹2.2 lakh crore and clocked over ₹7,250 crore in profits in FY25, while its competition bleeds cash. If there was ever a golden goose in Indian aviation, this was it.

But here’s the thing. One of its co-founders, Rakesh Gangwal, recently exited the company by selling the majority of his stake. Once holding over 35% of IndiGo, Gangwal has steadily sold down since 2022. In May 2025, he offloaded a ₹6,800 crore block. And then in August, another 3.1% for around ₹7,020 crore, bringing his total shareholding down to just under 5%. So if you look at it, his exit had been a methodical unwinding.

Which begs the question: Why is Gangwal walking away?

At first glance, you might think founders often cash out after a long run. But dig deeper, and you’ll find something more complicated. That at the heart of this problem lies a bitter moment between the two founders. And to understand that, let’s take it from the top.

IndiGo’s success story began in 2006 with Gangwal and Rahul Bhatia at the helm. Gangwal, a former United Airlines executive with deep operational experience, handled the back end. Bhatia, who ran InterGlobe Enterprises, focused on strategy and finance. Together, they ran a tight ship: low costs, high discipline, no frills. And by the time IndiGo went public in 2015, it was already India’s largest airline.

But despite their shared success, tensions began to build.

Gangwal accused Bhatia of breaching corporate governance norms. He claimed that Bhatia, through his group company InterGlobe Enterprises, exercised disproportionate control over IndiGo’s affairs. He raised red flags about related-party transactions, which are business dealings between IndiGo and Bhatia-linked firms that were not subject to sufficient board scrutiny, according to Gangwal.

In 2019, Gangwal raised these concerns. He also criticized the lack of independence in board appointments, suggesting that Bhatia could push through decisions without meaningful checks. This included major moves like leasing, vendor contracts, and operational tie-ups, areas where Bhatia’s influence allegedly went unchallenged. According to Gangwal, this was a risk to shareholder value.

Soon, he raised these concerns with SEBI over shareholder rights, making the dispute public. And the allegations centered on financial opacity and concentrated decision-making, which he believed endangered the company’s long-term health.

Unable to reconcile their differences internally, the founders eventually took their battle to the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) in 2019. Interestingly, the arbitration was first initiated by Bhatia’s InterGlobe Enterprises, but Gangwal’s group countersued for remedies of its own. And after nearly two years of back-and-forth, the tribunal delivered its final award in September 2021, and this time, Gangwal had reason to feel vindicated.

The tribunal ordered that specific (RoFR) clauses in IndiGo’s Articles of Association (AOA), ones that essentially gave each promoter veto power over the other’s share sale, be removed. These provisions, born from their earlier shareholders’ agreement, had effectively locked both founders into a stalemate, preventing either from diluting or monetizing holdings without the other’s consent. The arbitrators ruled that these restrictions be scrapped, paving the way for a more open and market-aligned structure.

Following the order, IndiGo convened an Extraordinary General Meeting in December 2021, at which shareholders voted to amend the AOA and formally remove those veto clauses. 

And with this change, both founders’ shares became freely tradable.

It was a landmark reform, not just because it allowed Gangwal to sell his shares freely, but because it sent a strong message to investors: no single promoter could ever again hold the company hostage over ownership rights. Yet, even after this structural fix, Gangwal believed that deeper governance issues still lingered, from concentrated control to conflicts of interest. And that’s when he decided to step away.

By February 2022, Gangwal had resigned from the board and announced his intention to gradually exit the company over the next five years.

Since then, his exit has unfolded in stages. Each sale is carefully timed, often through block deals, and mostly routed through the Chinkerpoo Family Trust. The latest sale in August 2025 was executed at ₹5,808 per share (about 4% lower than the market price).

But for Gangwal, it seems the decision wasn’t driven by price. It was principle.

Even with IndiGo flying high, he remained unconvinced that the company’s governance structures were sufficiently reformed. For him, the core issues remained unresolved:

1. Centralized control, 
2. Conflicts of interest, and
3. Weak oversight.

In his view, while the arbitration settled ownership disputes, it didn’t fully address the cultural and operational imbalances he had long warned about. The board was larger and more independent, yes, but true independence, he felt, was still lacking.

And when you no longer believe in the pilot, it doesn’t matter how well the plane is flying.

That’s what makes this exit so significant. From holding 36.6% in December 2021, he now has a little less than 5% by mid-2025.

And this wasn’t triggered by poor financials or weak market positioning. It stemmed from a breakdown of trust and alignment at the top. And that’s a lesson that extends far beyond aviation.

Great companies aren’t just built by profits or market share. They’re built by partnerships. And those partnerships are held together not just by equity, but by governance, transparency, and mutual respect.

Gangwal’s exit may seem quiet. But it’s a reminder of how loud silence can be when it comes from the cofounder of India’s most successful airline.

So, here’s the question: If building a great company requires trust, what’s left when even the founders stop believing in each other?

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Archer Snags Lilium’s 300 Patent Arsenal for €18M – A Bold Move in eVTOL Consolidation

Las Vegas / Oberpfaffenhofen: In a decisive move reshaping the advanced air mobility landscape, Archer Aviation announced it has acquired the intellectual property portfolio of bankrupt eVTOL pioneer Lilium for €18 million (≈ US $21 million) thereby securing Lilium’s Innovation Legacy.

The portfolio includes over 300 patents spanning high-voltage systems, battery management, flight controls, ducted fans, electric propulsion, advanced aircraft design, and related subsystems.

For Archer, which already holds more than 1,000 patent assets, this acquisition bolsters its competitive edge – particularly in ducted-fan and propulsion domains that many in the industry regard as technically differentiated.

At the same time, Archer is rolling out its Midnight air taxi model at NBAA 2025, marking the purchase both symbolic and strategic in nature.

Lilium’s Rise, Struggles & Collapse

Founded in 2015 by PhD students at the Technical University of Munich, Lilium captured early attention with the promise of a vectored-thrust, ducted-fan “Lilium Jet” that could serve regional routes rather than just intra-city hops.

Over its lifetime, the company raised more than US$1.5 billion, pouring money into R&D, prototypes, flight testing, and regulatory work.

Yet, despite the bold vision, Lilium confronted a cascade of challenges:

• Technical ambition vs. practical constraints: Its ducted-fan architecture, while promising on paper for efficiency and noise suppression, proved complex in practice – especially when trying to scale to certification and manufacturability.
• Cash burn and investor fatigue: In later years, Lilium’s losses mounted. It repeatedly failed to secure binding loan guarantees or fresh capital at critical junctures.
• Regulatory and certification hurdles: The eVTOL domain remains heavily regulated, and Lilium’s path to EASA/FAA type approval encountered resistance and skepticism.
• Rescue attempts failed: In late 2024, Lilium entered insolvency. A proposed reboot under “Lilium Aerospace” failed when promised funds never materialized.

Ultimately, Lilium’s collapse exposed the harsh reality in the air-mobility sector: great technology is not enough without sustainable business models, strong investor backing, and realistic execution.

Who Else Was in the Race?

Sources say Archer beat out Joby Aviation and Advanced Air Mobility Group (AAMG) for Lilium’s patent estate.

It appears Archer’s advantage lay in a clean, credible bid focused on IP assets, while rivals showed interest in reviving the Lilium Jet program itself.

5 Trends Shaping Mergers And Acquisitions in Indian Aviation Industry

Strategic & Industry Implications

• Consolidation intensifies: With many eVTOL developers burning through cash and facing long regulatory paths, the sector is increasingly favoring large firms acquiring distressed assets.
• IP as currency: Possessing the right patents – especially in propulsion, battery management, and noise mitigation – is becoming a key differentiator in the race to commercial operations.
• Better execution trumps hype: Lilium’s downfall underscores that ambition must be grounded in capital discipline, supply chain maturity, and regulatory strategy.
• National strategy plays a role: For Archer (a U.S. company), this deal not only absorbs competitive risk but also helps concentrate advanced eVTOL know-how under U.S. technological leadership.

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The Game Behind Gaza Peace Plan

The POTUS Donald Trump’s recent theatrics in the Israeli Knesset and at the 2025 Peace Summit in Egypt surpassed his earlier buffoonery; with his utterings like ‘Golden Age’ of Israel and the Middle East’, ‘End of an age of terror and death’, ‘Forces of chaos, terror, and ruin have been defeated’. Trump’s claims that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict started 3000 years ago, despite Israel being created in 1947-1948, reinforced his mental incapacity and sense of history-geography. Recall in his first presidency he asked visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi whether India and China shared a border. Trump’s dangerous psychotic mental state posing a danger to the world has already been established

Peace in Gaza was never the agenda – not earlier, not now. Joe Biden and Netanyahu were offered the Gaza deal last year, but Trump told Netanyahu he will have a “Better Deal” if he secured a second presidency. It is for the same “better deal” that Israel unilaterally broke the previous fragile ceasefire on March 18 this year, with heavy airstrikes killing 400 Palestinians on that single day. Not allowing the Biden-Netanyahu deal enabled killing 6,80,000 Palestinians, including forced starvation deaths, by April 2025; a figure that would have gone up by many more thousands. Moreover, 80% of Gaza structures have been damaged or destroyed, which means billions of dollars in reconstruction.

Though desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump could not pull through signing of the so-called peace deal earlier because Netanyahu was dead against letting Gaza continue to be administered by Palestinians.  Besides, Israel and the US both oppose the two-state solution. However, Trump managed to convince Netanyahu that without this so-called peace deal, there was no hope of Hamas returning the hostages and more would die, adding to the 26 already dead. And, that thereafter Israel would have a free-hand, which is why Netanyahu says, he has achieved his objective – going back on his earlier stand to make Gaza free of Palestinians – in line with Trump’s grand design of turning Gaza into an American Riviera.  

The second problem Trump faced was Hamas; whose leadership Israel was targeting.  But despite killing some 7,00,000 Palestinians, Hamas was alive and kicking. Trump, therefore, recruited Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who hates Israel and was sulking with the CIA having installed former Al Qaeda leader Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria’s President. Trump entertained Erdogan in the White House and asked him to get Hamas to agree to signing the peace deal, without mentioning he wants Hamas to disarm.

In return, Trump tasked Erdogan to re-energize Al Qaeda – the same way Erdogan trained and armed ISIS under American and British instructors before unleashing them in 2014. So, Erdogan is already training over 300 Syrian soldiers in two bases in Turkey  under a Syria-Turkey deal signed in August 2025, with expected number to increase up to 20,000. The revival of Al Qaeda is to advance US interests in the Middle East and Africa, as well as in the Sub Continent through the AQIS. No surprise, Erdogan signed the deal at the Peace Summit at Sharm El-Sheikh, Netanyahu was missing at the scene and Trump visited Tel Aviv separately.

There is a saying that some guys don’t mind auctioning their dead mother’s womb to gift a necklace to the harlot. Trump would do anything to make money for himself and his family. In 2017, Trump had said, “Qatar has been a funder of terrorism at a very high level.” This continues to-date, but with Qatar having gifted a private jet to Trump, the US is now building a Qatari Air Force base in America.

The antics of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in Israel must be seen together with Kushner few months earlier referring to Gaza’s coastal land as “very valuable” and suggesting that Israel should move out all civilians and clean it up before redeveloping it. As mentioned above, Trump himself has been talking of transforming Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East – owned by Trump naturally! Barron Trump has been handling private deals of the Trump family globally, including with Pakistan. The hot mike at Sharm El-Sheikh exposed Trump agreeing to make younger brat Eric Trump available for a private deal with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.  

There were more theatrics in Sharm El-Sheikh: Trump telling Italian Prime Minister Gloria Meloni how beautiful she is; Erdogan telling her to quit smoking; Meloni gawking at Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif buttering Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize – begging for WB/IMF loans; Trump virtually snubbing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer – for recognizing Palestine? The joke going around is that while French President Macron is busy changing prime ministers, Trump may have got Canada as the 51st state had he unleashed Katy Perry on Mark Carney.

Israel-Palestine Conflict and What Can India Learn From It?

Hamas has not returned bodies of all dead hostages together – perhaps sensing what Israel will do thereafter.   Trump had said once all hostages are freed, members of Hamas giving up arms will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided with safe passage to receiving countries. But Hamas responded by saying, “Talk about expelling Palestinians, whether they’re Hamas members or not, from their land is absurd and nonsense.” A senior Hamas official, while admitting significant political hurdles remain, has said that disarmament of Hamas is “out of the question” even if Hamas steps aside from Gaza’s government. On the other hand,  Netanyahu says Israel could resume its offensive if Hamas fails to disarm. The US-backed proposal to oversee the administration and reconstruction of Gaza (led by Tony Blair?) would obviously have American presence. The Palestinians view this the beginning of an occupation.

A day after signing the peace deal, violence erupted in Gaza. Hamas reportedly killed eight members of a rival group in Gaza in order to consolidate power. But then Israeli forces opened fire on Palestinians in northern Gaza on October 14 killing at least six people. According to the Israeli military, these people had crossed the “yellow line” – the boundary for Israel’s partial withdrawal. But Palestinian media says Israeli drones had fired on residents inspecting their homes; as reported by Alexandra Sharp.

Under the circumstances what is the likelihood of the cease-fire continuing? With even Trump not endorsing the two-state solution, it is indication enough that the Gaza Peace Plan (leave aside Middle East peace) has as many chances of success as Trump converting to Islam and heading ISIS himself. The Peace Summit in Egypt is no different from the farce of the Alaska Summit Trump played on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But there appears to be a bigger game behind this façade, which also includes the regime change in Syria, the taming of Erdogan and the summit in Sharm El-Sheikh. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime being welcomed in the Arab world and reopening of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations were anathema to the US. Israel’s airstrikes in Doha, greenlighted by Trump and known to Qatar’s hierarchy, drew Erdogan’s response labelling it Israel’s “greedy, bloodthirsty assault on Qatar’s sovereignty”. But the result was the Arab-Islamic NATO summit in Doha two days later, attended by Pakistan and Turkey as well – isolating Iran completely from the Sunni Muslim world. This has been fully consolidated with the Arab-Islamic presence at the Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh. The US is a major defence supplier to the Middle East and Qatar has been brought under the US defence umbrella. 

Trump may be looking at the Nobel Peace Prize winner Machado to unseat President Maduro in Venezuela but his focus is now on Iran, with Netanyahu saying Iran is developing an 8,000-km missile and Iran not bowing to US pressure for Uranium enrichment. The US-Israel plan appears to be to obliterate Shia Iran and deal with the Sunni Middle East later. This could be also the reason why Syrian President Sharaa is going to meet President Putin. Pakistan’s nuclearization and placement of American nukes in Pakistan are aimed at whoever the US views adverse to its interest at a particular time.

Concurrently, while Trump has declared war on his own states within the US, he appears intent on raising the bar in the Ukraine war by violating Russian redlines further – giving long-range missiles (like Tomahawks?) to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky – who excels in prostituting for the US-led NATO.  What Trump can’t fathom is that broadening the war in Ukraine, as well as in the Middle East, will result in the US getting sucked in because European countries (other than Israel) are far from being ready to hold on their own. That’s why some analysts are pointing out that Trump is going soft on Chinese plans to integrate Taiwan in the near-term, other than his tariffs war, which China is well capable of responding to.

PN: The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.

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